Cilic – Edmund

Marin Cilic will face Kyle Edmund in the Australian Open quarterfinals, with Cilic looking to reach his third ever Grand Slam final, while for Edmund this semifinal is already a first.

Cilic is on the back of an excellent win against Rafael Nadal, with Nadal retiring in the fifth set when Cilic was leading 3-6 6-3 6-7 6-2 2-0. It was a high quality match and Cilic deserved his win, but it was clearly facilitated by Nadal lowering the tempo after the third set. All in all, a confidence building success for Marin Cilic, who has played good tennis all tournament long, and will fancy his chances to reach his third Grand Slam final.

This Australian Open has definitely been a breakout tournament for Kyle Edmund. The Brit hadn`t even reached a Grand Slam quarterfinal prior to this week, but here he is now with a chance to qualify for the last act. It has to be said though that his performance wasn`t a fluke, as the Endlighman showed great improvement already since last year, and over the past 10 days he played consistent tennis to defeat Anderson, Istomin, Basilashvili, Seppi and most notably Grigor Dimitrov in the quarterfinals (6-4 3-6 6-3 6-4).

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Cilic won the only H2H meeting last Autumn in Shanghai, a close match which ended 6-3 7-6 for the Croat. Both players are aggressive baseliners, although Cilic is obviously the more offensive minded and also owns a bigger serve.

Listen, Cilic did great to get past Nadal and played a high level of tennis, but you have to feel his win was facilitated by Rafa’s injury. It wasn`t just a case of Cilic playing lights out tennis.

Edmund is in the form of his life, he will have a lot of confidence after beating (and dominating) Dimitrov, so he will feel he has a chance here. He is a very good mover from the baseline so that will help him keep the ball in play, and force some errors from Cilic.

I don`t think Cilic is stable enough to simply cruise through a talented, red hot opponent like Kyle Edmund, who can move, defend, counterpunch and also attack himself. While Cilic’s power and experience should eventually get him though, chances are Edmund will have something to say in this match, and make it an interesting contest.

I will bet on the games total line here, and my tip will be over 38 games to be played. This over should be covered in 4 sets, as you would expect a big server like Cilic to be involved in at least a tiebreak. Over 3.5 sets would also be a good and slightly safer choice, but I trust my analysis enough to take a slightly extra risk with the over 38 games. Look for Cilic to emerge victorious after a tight clash. Prediction: Marin Cilic – Kyle Edmund 7-6 5-7 6-4 6-3.

Pick: over 38 games
Odds: 1.85 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.80
Event date: 25 January