Cilic – Federer

Marin Cilic and Roger Federer will square off in a Grand Slam final for the second time in six months, and Cilic will hope to put on a better performance than he did at Wimbledon, when an injury denied him any chance to challenge Federer.

Cilic has been somewhat fortunate that his last two opponents (Nadal, Edmund) suffered from injuries, Nadal actually retiring in the fifth set of their quarterfinal clash. However, Cilic has played quality tennis all tournament and a fair case could be made that he might have reached the final even without that help from lady luck. The Croat was at a high level during his semifinal clash with Edmund, dominating the match, and it`s rather unlikely that Kyle Edmund’s injury had a real impact on the final result – Cilic just seemed better from the start.

Reaching the final has been pretty much a stroll in the park for Federer, as he didn`t really face any dangerous opponents with the exception of an in form Berdych. Nevertheless, Roger did what he had to do, played very good tennis with no moments of letdown and that is why he did not lose a single set so far. The Swiss Maestro is coming after a 6-1 6-2 victory against young gun Chung, who had to retire after two sets in their semifinal clash.

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Federer leads the H2H 8-1 (5-1 on hard) and has a clear matchup advantage over Cilic. Roger won the last meeting 6-7 6-4 6-1 just a few months ago at the ATP World Tour finals. However, Cilic proved that on his day he can take on the Swiss, winning their semifinal clash at the 2014 US Open in three sets – but that was arguably the best match of Cilic’s career, that is what he needed to sink Federer.

Fedex has been in the zone these past two weeks, playing very steady tennis, pumping on the gas when he needed and never being in any kind of danger. He has not been tested and that could be a problem, although you might argue that facing a red hot Berdych in the quarters was actually a good test. And, on the bright side, the easy draw allows him to be fit and rested coming into this final.

While Cilic played some very good tennis himself, fact is that it`s unclear if he really is at his absolute top level. He did have some problems during the tournament, and benefited from Nadal and Edmund suffering various levels of injuries.

Cilic himself stated that he didn`t feel completely right in his last two games, accusing some leg pain and fatigue. Still, he insisted that it shouldn`t be a problem coming into this final, and I tend to believe him.

On his day, Cilic can challenge and defeat any player in the world, as seen in his legendary run at the 2014 US Open. The hammer he has for a forehand gives him that punchers chance, similar to a heavyweight boxer.

However, odds are stacked against him here, and there is no real reason to suggest he could derail an in form Federer. Marin would need to play one of the best matches of his life, painting the lines with power shots point after point, and, to be honest, that is unlikely to happen. First of all getting into that kind of zone happens only a few times during a career, and secondly he didn`t quite show that God – like level in this tournament. Everything is possible and he will always have that punchers chance, but in no way is that a 20 – 25% chance, like the odds suggest – but more like 5% or so.

Adding other potential factors which could go right for the Croatian (Federer having a stinker, for example – obviously very unlikely), I still don`t see Cilic having more than a 15% chance to win this match. If this analysis is accurate, and I trust it is, then odds of 1.20 – 1.25 on Federer to win are actually value.

Unless Cilic has one of those days in which he can`t put a foot wrong, Federer should dominate this clash and win in 3 or 4 sets. He`s the better player, playing better tennis, knows how to win finals and also has a clear matchup advantage. My tip is Federer to cover the -1,5 set handicap. Prediction: Marin Cilic – Roger Federer 6-7 4-6 5-7.

Pick: Federer -1,5 set handicap
Odds: 1.51 @ 10Bet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 4.08
Event date: 28 January