Copil – Gojowczyk

Marius Copil will attempt to reach his first ever ATP semifinal when he takes on Peter Gojowczyk on indoor hard in the quarters at Metz.

The 86th ranked Marius Copil was in very poor form before Metz, losing 5 matches in a row in straight sets, but it was always expected that he will improve once the indoor hard season starts. The Romanian has a style perfectly suited for this surface and always raises his level at the end of the year. He played great this week in Metz, destroying Giannessi in the first round and defeating Pouille 7-6 7-6 in the second.

Gojowczyk himself was coming after a bad run but, like Copil, managed to regain his rhythm here in Metz. Gojowczyk easily navigated through the qualifying tournament before having big problems in the first round against Gombos, almost losing that match. Nevertheless, the German pulled through and went on to have a great performance in the second round against Gilles Simon (6-4 7-6).

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Gojowczyk leads the Head 2 Head 2-1. The two players actually met twice this year, with Copil winning in the Roland Garros qualies on clay and Gojowczyk winning at Wimbledon. There`s not much point in a matchup analysis, there is not a particular advantage for either man in terms of playing styles.

Both players had a good year, lost form in the last few months and regained it here in Metz. There`s little separating them in terms of quality and recent results, but the difference will be the surface.

While Gokowczyk is a very competent player on indoor hard courts, Copil is just a different animal each time at the end of the year, always defeating good players and making noise on the tour. Last season he was 18-5 on the surface and earned a lot of ranking points which he needs to defend to stay in the Top 100. Copil actually forfeited Davis Cup action to focus on this tournament so he is clearly motivated.

The Romanian has played really well so far in his first two matches and his win against Pouille was very impressive considering the fact that Pouille actually played at a really high level. Copil’s serve was superb and he also showed great mental strength to win the second set in a tiebreak after previously blowing a 3-0 lead and match points.

Gojowczyk played well himself, but he did almost lose to Gombos in the first round, and on Thursday he lost 5 consecutive games to Simon at one point – with Simon not playing well overall. The German didn`t quite show the same consistency as Copil.

The surface should be the difference here, I feel Copil’s potential on indoor hard is underestimated, as he should be the real favorite here. It will probably be a tight match, but Copil has the edge and a bet on his victory holds some value.

My tip is Copil to win, it will take a very good player to beat him this week and it`s doubtful Gojowczyk is the one. Prediction: Marius Copil – Peter Gojowczyk 7-6 6-4.

Pick: Copil
Odds: 2.02 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.16
Event date: 22 September