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Marsel Ilhan and Nicolas Mahut will square off in the 1st round of the Aegon Championships held at the Queen’s Club in London.
Mahut is one of the last natural grass court players in the ATP circuit. The frenchman simply loves this surface and his serve & volley game is perfect for the fast courts in London. Mahut had by far his best results on the green, including his sole two tournament wins (both last year), and he is a former finalist here at the Queen’s Club (or Aegon Championships as they are known now). Nicolas is arguably in the best period of his career, he played his best tennis in the last season and achieved a career high ranking of number 37 just one month ago. Apparently Mahut is in horrible form, as he won just 2 matches in his last 8 tournaments, but it was only natural for him to be a non-factor on clay, the surface he dislikes the most. He played a decent match in the Roland Garros 1st round, a 4 set loss against Kukushkin.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Marsel Ilhan (149 ATP) has played mostly challengers this year with mixed success and he is coming on the back of a 2nd round exit in the Roland Garros qualifiers (lost to Mecir). The 17 year old turkish player has no business playing on grass, posting a 6-7 record on the green at all levels, entering just 13 main draw grass court matches in his 8 year professional career. Last year he did not even bother to play on grass, preferring some clay court challengers instead. This surface simply does not suit his style of tennis. To his credit he did pass the qualies here in London, but he didn’t meet any top 200 players and he should have lost against Benjamin Mitchell if the 241st ranked Australian wouldn`t have had fitness problems late in the second set (6-7 7-5 1-0 Ret.).
The H2H is 0-0, this will be the first meeting between the two. Surely Ilhan will have big problems adjusting to Mahut’s offensiva game on this surface, especially never playing against him before.
One might say that Mahut needs some time to recover after his consecutive losses on clay, but the frenchman is always ready for the grass court season, he knows it is the best time of the year for him and that he has no time to adjust – as the grass court season is so short. Also, he has a ton of points to defend, so expect Nicolas to come out strong from the start with his serve & volley game and easily dispatch a grass-shy Ilhan. Nicolas is by far the better player and the surface could hardly favor him any more in this matchup. I can’t see how Ilhan could outplay Mahut for the course of an entire set on grass and initially I was thinking about a 2-0 pick on Nicolas, but the odds for the 4 game handicap are just too good to pass. One break per set is a reasonable task for the frenchman, so my tip is Mahut -4 game handicap. Prediction: Marsel Ilhan – Nicolas Mahut 4-6 3-6.
Pick: Mahut (-4 game handicap)
Odds: 2.06 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 9.54
Event date: 9 June
