Ilhan – Hanescu

Very interesting clash in the quarterfinals of the Mersin challenger tournament, played on clay. The odds on Ilhan seem to be way too high, especially as there are special circumstances surrounding this match and there is room for a solid value bet here.

Here in Turkey both players struggled a little bit with very close wins over inferior opponents, not playing their best tennis. Ilhan has been a bit more consistent this season than Hanescu and has the advantage of playing at home, but on the other hand Hanescu should be favored by the surface, which suits him a little bit better and he`s the better player when at his best. The H2H between the two is 1-1, both meetings took part in 2014, none of them was on clay.

Hard to see Hanescu deserving of his 1.50 odds, he is having a very poor season, actually for more than a year he is playing at a very low level. Victor did not show any signs of improvement here in Mersin and he`s surely not a better player than Ilhan right now. This week, the Romanian barely got over Ramirez Hidalgo (6-3 in the decider) and Kovalik (7-6 in the decider, should have lost). Marsel can win this based strictly on tennis reasons, I reckon his chances of winning are at least 45%, but I see it more like a 50-50 clash – two mediocre players, none of them in good form, Hanescu has better quality overall but is clearly degrading quick at 34 years old and he is far from his best level of tennis.

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However there`s a catch in this game, which could well favor Ilhan. Hanescu is registered to play qualifications at his hometown tournament in Bucharest after he was denied a wildcard by the organizers in the last second, a very unprofessional move towards the best Romanian player in the last decade. Qualifications start this Saturday, so if Hanescu wants to play in Bucharest, he has to lose this match.

Now, I clearly don`t expect Victor to intentionally lose or be involved in a fixed match, I think he would prefer to win this tournament, especially since I`m sure he`s very angry with the Bucharest organizers. However, we`re talking about his home town tournament and he would surely like to be there. Point is, if the going gets tough, I can`t see Victor leaving his all on the court, fighting his heart out for a comeback or being the more motivated player in the clutch – at this level, this has a huge impact. It will be in the back of his mind that, if he loses, he can go and play in Romania, where there`s more money involved as well.

With the above point in mind and considering that this should be a very close match anyway, my tip is Ilhan to win. The odds on this bet are surely holding some excellent value and it should be a winner as well – actually the bookmakers opened with Hanescu as high as 1.80 and they knew what they were doing (strictly based on quality, it was before this issue with the ATP Bucharest qualies arised). Prediction: Marsel Ilhan – Victor Hanescu 3-6 6-3 6-1.

Pick: Ilhan
Odds: 2.55 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 12.40
Event date: 17 April