Marterer – Norrie

Maximilian Marterer will take on Cameron Norrie in the second round at the ATP 250 event held in Lyon, on red clay.

Marterer is coming after a notable win against Monfils, defeating the Frenchman in the first round and coming back from 0-1 down to do it. The 69th ranked Marterer has affirmed himself as a solid clay court player over the last few years, and this season hasn`t been different. He did have a couple of upset losses early, but in the last few weeks he has been great, beating guys like Schwartzman, Monfils, Troicki or Fucsovics, also reaching the semifinals in Munich.

The 102nd ranked Norrie has decided to play on clay for the first time in 5 years, having been a hard court specialist throughout his career. He didn`t do anything notable on the red dirt this season, but he did manage to get his first ever ATP win on clay against Haase in Estoril, and got his second this week – beating the 266th ranked Hernandez 2-0 in the first round.

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This will be the first H2H meeting between the two players, so a matchup analysis would be more or less futile. However, there is clearly an advantage for Marterer in terms of the playing surface.

The red clay in Lyon should make the difference here, as we are talking about a clay court specialist (Marterer) meeting a guy who is a hard court expert and didn`t even play on the red dirt between 2014 and 2017 (Norrie).

Norrie`s wins on clay this season came against players who were either out of form (Haase), either not good on clay (De Schepper), either flat out poor (Hernandez). Marterer does not check either of these categories at the moment.

When you add the fact that Marterer has been in very good form recently, and looking at his great first round win against Monfils (which means he is in good rhythmn this week), it seems rather unlikely that he could screw this up against a novice on clay like Norrie.

Everything points towards Marterer winning this match, and odds around 1.40 seem way too high. A price around 1.25 would arguably be more fair. Obviously there is no foregone conclusion in sports and Marterer won`t win the match by just stepping on the court – he will need to perform, but I do trust my analysis enough to invest 9 units on the German.

The odds on the straight win are playable, so I won`t get greedy, and I will bet on Marterer to win straight up. Prediction: Maximilian Marterer – Cameron Norrie 7-6 6-3.

Pick: Marterer
Odds: 1.43 @ 1xBet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 3.87
Event date: 23 May