Grizzlies – Warriors

Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors will square off in Game 6 of the Western Conference semifinals, with Memphis trying to avoid elimination at home after previously holding an advantage in this series.

Memphis was up 2-1 after the first three matches, with a road win under their belt and they looked good value to stop the Warriors. However, two things happened that allowed Golden State to come back and lead 3-2 with two lopsided wins: firstly, Tony Allen got injures and secondly, NBA MVP Steph Curry started finally making threes and playing well. Tony Allen is expected to be back for Memphis today, bringing in that much needed defensive factor. Facing elimination, Memphis will surely go to their rugged style and try to pull this off at home.

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Golden State Warriors finished with the best record in the regular season, routed Pelicans 4-0 in the first playoff round and they have the league MVP in Stephen Curry – everything going perfectly for them before those first three games with Memphis, when they got (almost) schooled by the tough, big Grizzlies. Credit to them, they figured it out quickly and started making shots, winning the last two games by a big margin to lead 3-2 – but Tony Allen missing was a big factor, as he was constantly altering shots and forcing the Warriors into crisis.

The odds on the Grizzlies are completely unrealistic, they are based mostly on the image of the last two matches in which they were totally outplayed – thus providing us with excellent value. After two bad performances in a row, with Tony Allen probably back, playing at home and being in a must win situation, I could argue that Memphis has at least the same chances as Golden State to win this. They proved they can beat Golden State but, most importantly, they proved that their pragmatic style, based on the frontcourt, works against the Warriors.

Expect an improved performance from the bigs of Memphis, expect Tony Allen to have an impact (hopefully he`ll play) and expect the Warriors to cool down a little bit – it`s unlikely they will keep up the same averages as in the last two games (14 threes per game, >45% from three). For better safety you can go with the +5 spread, but my tip is Memphis to win this Game 6 straight up and take it to a decider. The value is just too good for a game that can go either way – though personally I expect Memphis to win. Warriors can not challenge them in the frontcourt and, as previously said, Warriors are due an off day in the backcourt – especially with Allen potentially back. Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies – Golden State Warriors 94-91.

Pick: Memphis Grizzlies
Odds: 2.90 @ CarbonSports
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 13.3
Event date: 16 May