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The Memphis Grizzlies will host the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday night in the Western Conference play-in tournament. The loser will be eliminated from playoff contention, while the winner will get the chance to play a winner take all game for the last spot in the playoffs, with either the Lakers or the Warriors.
Memphis (38-34 18-18 home) lost to Golden State in the last game of the regular season, missing the chance to finish 8th in the standings. Nevertheless, the team is still playing very well: 5 wins in the last 6 games and an exciting season overall. It’s just that the Warriors and Steph Curry were too strong in that deciding match a few nights ago.
The Spurs (33-39, 19-17 away) have lost four straight and 10 of their last 12. After playing way above expectations in the first half of the season, the law of averages caught up to them, and they have been poor on the last stretch. Can coach Popovich lead this team over clearly superior opposition in this play-in?
Injury report: Nothing new for the Grizzlies, Grayson Allen is the only notable absentee. The same is valid for the Spurs, the only relevant absentee is White, and he’s not a new one.
To be frank, I struggle to understand these odds on Memphis. I was thinking they might have a new injury, but that is not the case. There is no particular matchup disadvantage either (in fact, Grizzlies beat the Spurs comfortably in both meetings in 2021). There’s no reason why the Grizzlies should be priced as high as 1.60 to win, as opposed to odds around 1.40 – 1.50, which is the price I would consider correct. Maybe just the fact that both teams play better on the road this season, which would be an advantage for the Spurs. How much weight you put on that, it’s up to you. I don’t think it matters that much in a winner take all clash.
Listen, the Spurs are a cohesive group and are particularly well coached, but fact is the talent is not that great on the team, and they have been punching above their weight for most of the season. I was expecting a drop, and it happened. The Spurs are not playing well right now.
Memphis on the other hand has been rolling, they are young and hungry, and after losing the play in game last year, I think they will take from that experience and win tonight. Sure, their youth can be a disadvantage against veteran teams like the Warriors, as I said in my previous pick, but the Spurs are not the Warriors.
It’s hard to look past the Grizzlies. They are hands down the better team and particularly over the past few weeks they are playing so much better than the Spurs. I’m backing the Grizz straight up and I would be surprised if odds don’t drop. Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies – San Antonio Spurs 112 – 105.
Pick: Grizzlies
Odds: 1.61 @ 1xBet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 5.49
Event date: 19 May
