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After Miami narrowly won the NBA finals last year in a 7 game series over San Antonio, the Spurs will have the chance for revenge and this time around they will hold the home court advantage. It was a mouthwatering series in 2013 and the opportunity for a 2014 rematch has left NBA fans drooling over what could be in store again. The series kicks off with Game 1 in San Antonio tonight, and my analysis follows below.
Miami (54-28, 22-19 away) finished with as the second seed in the East behind Indiana but the Heat cruised trough the playoffs, losing just 3 games (1 against Brooklyn, 2 against Indiana). Miami played some good basketball but the conference was also pathetically weak and Indiana crumbled in the post season, so the Heat really did not have good opposition to test themselves against. Miami has not changed much since last year, but they have a healthier Dwayne Wade and that should make a difference.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
San Antonio (62-20, 32-9 home) just keeps on pushing year after year despite an aging squad. The spurs finished with the best record in the league, played great at home and impressed in the playoffs as well in a very tough Western Conference. The spurs had a little meltdown in the first round against Dallas, needing 7 games to win, but went on to dismantle Portland 4-1 and the very strong Oklakoma City 4-2. The series against OKC was a character test for Popovich’s side, as they lost a 2-0 advantage and were looking likely to lose the series, but recovered to win the last 2 matches against surely the 3rd best team in the NBA.
The matchup analysis can reveal only important factor for this bet, the fact that San Antonio is better under the paint and Miami has the best player on the court (Lebron James), aside from this the teams are very evenly matched in terms of quality.
I rate San Antonio as the best team in the league this year and so do the bookies, making them the odds-on favorites to win the series and setting the spread at 5 points for today. The Spurs are better and have more depth than last year, were just brilliant over the course of the season, are on a high after the emphatic win against OKC and are desperate for revenge against Miami in the finals, as Tim Duncan himself stated. I expect San Antonio to come out strong in the first game at home and a motivated Duncan to make the difference under the paint, where SAS has the matchup advantage. Miami needs better contributions for their supporting players, as they have disappointed a little bit this season. The Spurs have been excellent this season in protecting their home court and they should go up 1-0 tonight, I think Miami needs 1-2 games to re-adjust to this level of opposition after so many matches against poor teams. My tip is San Antonio to win and also cover a 5 point spread (money back on the bet in case of an exactly 5 point win). Prediction: Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs 95 – 103.
Pick: San Antonio Spurs (-5)
Odds: 2.07 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7.49
Event date: 6 June
