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Andy Murray takes on Milos Raonic in what is expected to be a very tough game for the world number 6, who is struggling to find his best game after the back surgery undergone last year.
Raonic surely did not have his best season so far this year, playing just three matches for a 3rd round exit at Australian Open (loss to Dimitrov) prior to the Indian Wells. However, the big-serving canadian looked fit and was pretty sharp coming into this tournament, edging a close game against Roger-Vasselin in the 2nd round before easily defeating Falla in his next match.
Murray had to undergo back surgery and missed the last couple of months last season. Even if his inactivity period was rather short, Andy is struggling big time to regain his form this season – which is natural, considering how much any kind of surgery takes out of you. His serve is clearly the most affected, as he simply can`t find any rhythm on his first ball and, for example, he conceded 6 (!!) breaks against Vesely in the 2nd round. Andy was out of sync for the whole tournament so far, needing 3 sets to defeat two mediocre players in Rosol and Vesely. Prior to the Indian Wells, Andy played 4 tournaments, reaching 2 quarters and a semifinal. He lost sets to guys like Andujar, Thiem, Querrey or Robert and lost to Federer, Dimitrov, F. Mayer and Cilic.
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Murray’s playing style suits Raonic, with the big serving canadian holding the edge in the H2H (2-1, 1-1 on hard, 5-3 in sets). The last meeting was won by Milos in 2012 on hard.
Milos’s devastating serve gives him a huge edge in this match. He will get a lot of free points and will rarely be troubled on his service games, while Murray is simply killing himself on his own serve with double faults and pathetic 2nd serves, so I expect the canadian to have his chances on the return even if he`s not the best receiving player out there. Raonic is not in his best form, that`s a fact, but he’s top 10 material and played good tennis at the Indian Wells, better than Andy who is really struggling right now and has failed to defeat a top 20 opponent so far this year. It`s hard to see Andy a clear favorite against a top 15 guy in his current form.
Andy Murray`s current situation makes a bet on Raonic hugely valuable and I’d even say the canadian should be the favorite here. The odds are dropping at an alarming rate on Milos so I`ll take this one early. My tip is Raonic to win, I`m thinking 3 sets with a break of serve to decide each one. The analysis clearly shows great odds and value on this bet so my choice will be a maximum stake investment. A simple performance with good serving and not too many unforced errors should be enough for Milos to defeat the shaky Brit. Correct score prediction: Milos Raonic – Andy Murray 6-4 3-6 6-3.
Pick: Milos Raonic
Odds: 2.50 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 15
Event date: 12 March
