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Andy Murray will be the favorite in a Grand Slam final for the first time in his career, as the Brit hero is expected to claim his second Wimbledon title and the third Major Championship against the first time Grand Slam finalist Milos Raonic.
Raonic pulled off a miraculous escape in the semifinals against Federer, coming back from the brink to win in 5 sets. While it`s true that Federer lost that match more than Raonic won it (Fed was the better player for most of the first 4 sets and had chance after chance to win the fourth), the Canadian deserves a lot of credit. He stayed close to an inspired Roger and took his chances when they presented himself, finally showing great composure to dominate the 5th set. It was the 10th win in 11 matches on grass this season for Milos, his only loss coming at the hands of Murray in a very close final at Queens. The Canadian is definitely on the rise and he is playing his best tennis over the last few weeks.
Andy Murray had a scare in the quarters against Tsonga, when he blew a 2-0 set lead before pulling himself back together to win the 5th set 6-1. Those were the only sets Murray lost in the last two weeks and he is now riding an 11 match winning streak on the green. After the tough match against Tsonga, Murray made light work of an in form Tomas Berdych, losing just 9 games in a statement win that came to confirm his excellent form.
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Murray leads the Head 2 Head 6-3 (1-0 on grass) and won all three meetings this year, but two of them (the ones not on clay) were epic thrillers. Andy won a 5 setter in the Australian Open semifinals and came back from 6-7 0-3 to win the Queens final just a few weeks ago, on grass. It`s difficult to say that any player holds a matchup advantage, ore that any player is better suited for the surface. The Head 2 Head doesn`t say much, really.
I firmly believe Andy Murray will win this, his consistency and experience at this level will prove to be too much for the Canadian. But Raonic is playing the tennis of his life and he`s not likely to go down without a fight in the biggest match of his life. He`s playing some very solid tennis from the baseline and his serve will always give him a chance to play a couple of tiebreaks and to realistically challenge for sets. The guys is cool as ice and I don`t see him folding under pressure, especially after he outfoxed Federer in the semifinals, where he also got used to playing against the crowd, as he will have to do again today.
Indeed, Raonic should have lost against Federer, but that`s not to say he does not deserve to be here, or that he`s not playing at a Grand Slam winning level. It`s quite the opposite, the fact that he pulled off the win is remarkable, considering that Federer played extremely well in the first 4 sets of that match. It says a lot about the level of Milos and about his composure.
Raonic put Murray under a lot of pressure in the Australian semifinals this year and was close to winning their final at Queens a few weeks ago. Sure, a Wimbledon final is a different matter, but I expect Raonic to win a set here and that will almost surely mean an over in games, as the line is not too high at 39.5.
All things considered, my tip on the Wimbledon final is over 39 games to be played. A stake of 8 units seems right for this bet. Prediction: Milos Raonic – Andy Murray 3-6 7-6 3-6 6-7.
Pick: over 39 games
Odds: 1.80 @ Youwin
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.40
Event date: 10 July
