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A semifinal spot at stake in the Cincinnati Masters when Milos Raonic and Fabio Fognini square off in the day session today.
Milos Raonic is in the best form of his life right now, there`s no doubt about that. The recent Wimbledon semifinalist played a fantastic tournament at Washington 2 weeks ago when he blew all opponents off the court to win the title – unbreakable serve, solid baseline play. He exited Toronto in the quarterfinals against Lopez which was actually an underachievement the way he has been playing, but he looked a little bit tired after Washington. Here on the fast Cincinnati hard he had an easy game against Ginepri before needing a 3rd set tiebreak to get past Steve Johnson, a player that is in the form of his life.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Fognini was surely not expected to reach this stage in Cincinnati, he is usually a mug on hard courts and he is in rather poor form overall, he failed to make an impact even in the post-Wimbledon clay tournaments, where he`s usually superb. However, Fabio improved for this great QF run at Cincy but it has to be said that he did have the luck of the draw to support him. He barely edged Roger Vasellin in the first round, easily beat Hewitt and struggled again against Lu in the last round. These are hardly impressive results if we take into account that Hewitt was way below par in the 2nd round. Fognini is making some mistakes, he`s serving poor, not exactly a recipe for success in the latter stages of a Masters.
Raonic leads the H2H 1-0, the only meeting was last year in the Davis Cup on hard, with Milos winning 3-0. The matchup analysis will say this is a classical tennis duel between a big server and a baseline clay court player.
I can see Raonic easily winning this. He did have problems against Johnson but it was the kind of game that gives you strength, and for sure Johnson is a more dangerous opponent than Fognini on this surface, right now. Cincy has some of the fastest courts out there and they do not really suit Fabio, while Raonic will thrive with his big serve. I`d say a QF was the best scenario for Fognini here, he improved a little, he had the luck of the draw, but he`s not in his best form and he is not good enough on this surface to go further. Raonic is playing blistering tennis and considering Fognini`s weak serve, the Canadian mighe even avoid tiebreaks. However, if it comes to that, he`s a specialist there while Fabio is not used to playing breakers. My tip is Raonic to win with a -1,5 set handicap, a natural conclusion of the analysis. Pinny again comes up with the best odds at Cincinnati. Prediction: Milos Raonic – Fabio Fognini 7-5 6-3.
Pick: Raonic (-1,5 set handicap)
Odds: 1.83 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 5.81
Event date: 15 August
