Interesting matchup here in the Toronto quarterfinals, with Milos Raonic taking on fellow big server Feliciano Lopez.
Raonic played arguably the best tennis of his career last week in his title run at Washington. The Canadian was simply flawless on serve, allowing just one break, early in the first round against Sock, and winning all his matches in straight sets. Milos has a really good season and the title run at Washington came after his best career result, the semifinal at Wimbledon, so Raonic is in top form right now. Here in Toronto he did look a little tired, losing sets in both of his matches (Sock, Benneteau), but he is motivated to do well at home, he also has a final to defend from last year, so I expect him to tough it out and improve in the final stages of the tournament, starting today. He has to do it, as he meets a very good opponent in Feliciano Lopez.
Lopez had an amazing grass court season, posting a 12-2 win/loss record, winning the title in Eastbourne and beating guys like Berdych, Hewitt, Gasquet or Isner. His serving performance in those 3 weeks on grass was legendary, as the spaniard lost serve just 8 times in 14 matches (5 times in the first rounds when he was more relaxed), going 2-3 matches in a row without even allowing break points – and we`re talking about a lot of 3 or even 4 set encounters here. Feliciano lost form after Wimbledon, losing to Rosol in Stuttgart and Estrella in Washington. But surely he needed some time to recover after his grueling grass court season and here in Toronto looks back on track – straight sets win over Bautista and Smyczek, 3 set win over Berdych yesterday.
The H2H is 2-1 for Raonic. He has 2-0 on hard and also won the last two matches, both of them late last year. The matchup analysis is simple, both guys are big servers who can also follow up the serve with winning forehands or volleys, both are sub-par returners but can play a good baseline tennis game as well.
This should be a tight match with few service breaks. A handicap on Lopez or an over look good bets, but looking at the odds, a first set tiebreak is the best pick here in my opinion. I reckon the odds for a first set tiebreak are so high because Raonic and Lopez have not played so many breakers so far here in Montreal (Raonic 2, Lopez 1), but that was more of a fluke and it also happened because of the style of the opponents. When these two will pair up together, with their big serves, there`s a high chance that the first set will end with a tiebreak, I`d say the percentage for this kind of bet to win is around 50% according to my analysis, so that is my tip here. Prediction: Milos Raonic – Feliciano Lopez 6-7 6-3 7-6.
Pick: Tiebreak in first set
Odds: 2.75 @ Bet365
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 14
Event date: 8 August