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Surely Milos Raonic against Gilles Simon must be the match of the day at Roland Garros, with two fine, in-form players set to battle it out on Phillipe Chatrier for a place in the 4th round.
The big serving Milos Raonic is not exactly the biggest fan of clay, but his results on the surface are not bad at all and the fact that the courts in Paris are very fast will favor his game. Raonic had a good season so far and on the red dirt he reached a quarterfinal at Monte Carlo and a semifinal in Rome, excellent achievements for a guy that theoretically is a hard court player. However, the Canadian does not have too many big wins on clay in 2014, the only solid players he defeated being Robredo and out of form Tsonga, and he also lost to Berlocq. Here in Roland Garros Raonic did not lose a set against Kyrgios and Vesely.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Simon was having an awful season until a couple of weeks ago, dropping out of the Top 30, but his last two tournaments showed a steady improvement in his level of tennis. First he almost beat Nadal in the Madrid 2nd round and backed that up with a semifinal in Nice, defeating Dominic Thiem and a very resilient Berlocq before losing to Delbonis. Simon backed up his recent improvement with 2 dominating wins in Paris against Pavic and A. Gonzalez. Indeed the opponents were not top class, but Gilles lost just 11 games in these two matches, which is very impressive. He plays well, he`s moving well and seems to have his confidence back.
The H2H is 1-0 for Raonic, the canadian winning the only meeting in 2011 at Estoril, on clay, in 3 sets. The canadian can trouble Simon with his serve and power shots but Gilles is much better on the baseline and will always win most of the rallies going over 5-6 shots, so the matchup is pretty balanced here.
I can see this going all the way. Both competitors are playing very well right now and neither one of them will roll over to concede an easy win for his opponent. Raonic has been much more steady this year, had great results and is the better player at the moment, but Simon played great tennis in the last two weeks and also has the advantage of playing at home, always a big thing in France. I was thinking about betting on Simon to win, great value bet at the current odds, but eventually I will go with the safer and more logical choice and I will tip the over 40,5 games bet. Raonic is almost impossible to break and most likely we`ll have at least one tiebreak and no set will go lower than 6-3. Simon should take at least a set here, so if it goes to 4 sets there`s an almost certainty that the bet will be won. Good line on the over and it`s no wonder the odds are dropping big-time. Prediction: Milos Raonic – Gilles Simon 7-6 4-6 6-3 6-7 6-3.
Pick: over 40,5 games
Odds: 1.88 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.04
Event date: 30 May
