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Just two days after playing in the Montreal final, Milos Raonic will hit the courts again against young american Jack Sock in the first round of Cincinnati Masters. Interesting game here betting-wise.
Raonic didn`t have the best first half of the year, usually exiting tournaments in the first two rounds, sometimes in the first three. Until Montreal his best performances were winning San Jose, R16 at Australian Open and semifinals at Barcelona, not too good for a top 15 player. He was abysmal on grass, winning 1 out of 3 matches, against Berlocq, and also had a poor start in the US Open series, being knocked out by Matosevic in his second match at Washington. But somehow Raonic regained his best form at Montreal, beating Del Potro and Gulbis on the way to the final, where he lost 6-2 6-2 to Nadal. The canadian played great, but it was clearly a very lucky tournament for him, with no big name opponents except Del Potro, who was not at his best physically. Also, Raonic should have lost to Pospisil in the semis, and arguably against Gulbis too.
Sock is a class under new top 10 boy Raonic for sure. He is still not solid ATP material, barely being in the top 100. He is also a big server, but still has a lot to learn. Jack got a wild card for the main draw here at Cincinnati. Sock is having a good year for his standards, climbing over 60 spots in the rankings and his short term form is ok, with a title at Winnetka challenger in July, also beating Sijsling in Washington. The american showed some signs this year that he is starting to be able to compete against top players, defeating players like the above mentioned Sijsling, Garcia Lopez or even today`s opponent Raonic. Yes, he did beat Milos this year at Memphis (american hard) for a 1-0 H2H.
The big thing here is that Raonic will surely be tired after that run in Montreal. He is not the fittest player on tour, he is not used to playing so many tough matches in a week, and he really had some marathons last week with Chardy, Gulbis, Pospisil, even Del Potro. He actually showed fatigue signs in the final against Nadal. It`s physically impossible for Raonic to be at his best today. Also, the psychological aspect will count, as he just made the biggest result of his career. Finally, the canadian is far from being a consistent player, his form in the last months consists only of the Montreal final, so he couldn`t be trusted in any circumstances at these odds.
Raonic is the better player here but he is extremely overestimated, as always, because of his fantastic serve. People tend to bet on him taking that serve as some kind of an insurance, thinking he will never lose it over the course of the game. That`s just wrong, and Milos lost so many matches when he was a clear favorite. Overestimation goes even further after his surprising final at Montreal, and in the current circumstances that gives us the chance to find some really great value in today`s match.
Expect Milos to be a little bit unfocused in the start, and Sock can take advantage of that. Also, if the game goes in a decider, the american will clearly have the physical edge and should take it. Jack`s serve will help him stay in the game and take advantage of Raonic`s fatigue or lapses in concentration. I like the +2,5 handicap on Sock (both players are big servers) but I`ll take the american to win for value. He already beat Raonic this year, so he proved that he can do it. He`ll also have big home support, actually expect Raonic to be booed after he showed huge lapses in fair-play last weak (not admitting he touched the net in a crucial point against Del Potro). Being a canadian won`t help either. I really fancy Sock to win this one and I think I am backed by the arguments, so I`ll recommend pretty high stakes.
Pick: Sock
Odds: 2.98 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 13.86
Event date: 13 August
