Zverev – Federer

Mischa Zverev will square off against Roger Federer in the Australian Open quarterfinals on Tuesday morning. As of now, Federer is the odds on favorite to win the whole thing.

Mischa Zverev is on the back of a shocking 3-1 win over Murray, one of the biggest upstets in the recent history of tennis. Zverev played a flawless game of serve & volley and left Murray without any answers. Of course, Andy did not play a good match, but Zverev’s style and precision had a lot to do with that. There truly was nothing announcing Zverev’s massive win, as the German journyman almost lost in the second round to Isner a few days before, coming back from 2 sets down and winning 7-5 in the decider. Zverev also defeated Garcia-Lopez (3-0) and Jaziri (3-1) on his road to the quarters.

Federer surprised everyone in this tournament by playing some of the best tennis of his life, despite coming back after a 6 month layoff. He played two brilliant matches against Berdych and Nishikori, showing not only a top class level of play, but also excellent stamina. Fed was able to beat Nishikori in 5 sets after Kei stole the 4th, so that tells us that Roger is in good physical condition. He said it himself, claiming that he feels fantastic and that he trained extremely hard in the last few months before his comeback. As such, there`s no reason to expect fatigue from Federer in this match, especially since the rallies will be very short.

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Federer leads the H2H 2-0 and the previous meeting was won 6-0 6-0 (!!) by Roger, back in 2013 in Halle. Zverev won 8 games in 4 sets of tennis against Federer, which is not very surprising considering the difference in quality, but also Roger’s excellency when facing serve & volley players.

I believe Federer will win this match in straight sets. He needs a quick win after the thriller with Nishikori and I think he has all the tools and circumstances to get it.

It`s well known that players like Zverev collapse after claiming a big scalp in Grand Slams and almost always lose badly in the next round. It happen so many times, with plenty of examples like Stakhovsky, Darcis, Brown and the list can go on and on. I see no reason for Mischa to avoid that scenario. It`s not like he`s a youngster on the rise and he didn`t even play flawless in this tournament until the Murray match. The game with Andy was simply the match of his life and it`s unlikely he`ll get near that level again.

Leaving aside the obvious quality gap, the immense difference in experience and so on, the key thing here is that Federer is a nightmare matchup for Zverev. Federer has routinely picked apart serve & volley players like Zverev, he knows very well how to play against them and his 6-0 6-0 win over Mischa in the last meeting is definitive proof of that.

My dream bet here would have been Federer to cover the 1,5 set handicap at odds around 1.50 (would have even taken 1.40) which would have covered the possibility of Zverev getting ultra hot in a set, or holding by the edge of his teeth to a tiebreak and getting lucky there. Unfortunately the bookies did their job and odds for that bet are virtually unplayable on singles (around 1.25).

It is obviously possible for Zverev to win one set, but it is not probable. Even if Mischa finds his zone for a set or so, which I doubt he will considering the matchup, Federer is experienced enough to weather the storm. He knows he badly needs a quick win so he will be focused to not let this go to distance. Federer has all the weapons to win in straight sets and his huge experience at this level should ensure he does not screw it up.

My tip is Federer to cover the 2,5 set handicap. As I said I was hoping for better odds, but I still think chances for a 3-0 Federer win are much higher than odds suggest. Prediction: Mischa Zverev – Roger Federer 4-6 5-7 2-6.

Pick: Federer -2,5 set handicap
Odds: 1.75 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6
Event date: 24 January