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Italian Serie B promotion playoffs. Modena hosts Spezia in the quarterfinals, there is only one leg so the winner of this match advances to the semis. Tuesday, 3rd June.
Modena ended the regular season on 5th place thanks to playing very good football at home and due to an excellent run of games late in the season. Modena did not taste defeat in the last 16 games (8 wins, 9 draws) and they had one of the best home records in Serie B: 12 wins, 6 draws and only 3 defeats. The hosts have a good mix of youngsters and experienced players and apparently the team jelled properly in the second part of the season, now Modena is playing Serie A level football and they are one of the favorites to advance trough the playoffs.
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Despite finishing with just 2 points less than Modena, Spezia finished on the 8th place in the regular season and barely caught the playoffs in the last round. They were the 9th best team this season, but Siena was penalized with 8 points and so Spezia has the chance to attack a place in the Serie A now via the playoffs. Spezia finished the season in pretty good form with 2 draws and 2 wins in the last 4 games, also they play pretty well away from home (7 wins, 7 draws, 7 defeats).
One particular interesting fact for this game is that Modena scored the most goals in Serie B this season and they have a devastating attacking partnership with Granoche and Babacar (30 goals together) – while Spezia conceded the second most goals between the top 11 teams in the table. I think the visitors will have big problems containing this Modena team and they will probably allow some goals, which will most likely decide the outcome. Regarding injuries and suspensions, both teams are close to full strength.
Modena is so strong at home, they have a better squad and clearly are playing better football in 2014 despite finishing just 2 points above Spezia. Modena’s amazing form is also an indicative of why they are favorites to win this match and why the odds are dropping on the Modena to win bet. Spezia is a pragmatic team and maybe at home they would have a chance, but on the road they will fall today. Spezia took 4 points from Modena in the regular season but now circumstances have changed. My tip will be Modena to win. Correct score prediction: Modena – Spezia 2-0.
Pick: Modena
Odds: 2.14 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 9.12
Event date: 3 June
