Moldova – Wales

Moldova and Wales will square off in Group D of the European qualifiers for the 2018 World Cup. Moldova is dead last with 2 points after 7 rounds, while Wales is third with 11 points.

The Moldavians have gone backwards and backwards in the last few years, in contrast to must small European teams, who have gone forward. The increase in foreigners in the domestic competition might be the main reason, but whatever it is, fact is that Moldova is dirt poor. The hosts won just 2 of their last 33 games (!!), against San Marino and Andorra. In these qualifiers, Moldova claimed 2 draws (both against Georgia) and lost their last game 0-3 in Serbia a few days ago.

Wales claimed a monumental win on Saturday, beating Austria 1-0 at home to keep their qualification hopes alive – anything other than a win would have made it extremely difficult for them to maintain any hope. It was just the second win for Wales in this group, the previous one being 4-0 vs Moldova. On the other hand, the Welsh are still undefeated so far, posting a record of 2 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses in Group D.

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Team news: There are no game changing absences to report. The big news is that Wales will get back Joe Allen and Neil Taylor, who were suspended against Austria, and that will be a welcome addition of quality and fresh legs.

Wales completed the more difficult job by beating Austria Saturday, but that win will be for nothing if the Welsh don`t back it up with victory in Moldova. The Welsh are 2 points behind Ireland and 4 points behind Serbia in the standings with just three rounds to go, so there is no room for error – especially as finishing second might not be enough if they don`t rack up a certain number of points.

What`s more, Serbia plays Ireland in this same round, so there is a massive opportunity for Wales here. This game really has the potential to make or break their campaign.

It`s hard to see Moldova challenging a superior team which absolutely needs the win. The Moldavians are at home, but that didn`t help them much in the last years – Moldova hasn`t won at home since 2013 (14 matches!), racking up 4 draws and 10 losses in that process.

Look for Wales to do a professional job and win this game. Moldova hasn`t claimed a point against a team of Wales’ quality since 2014, when they held Russia to a 1-1 draw, so it`s difficult to believe they will do it today considering how focused and motivated Wales will be.

My tip is Wales to cover the -1 asian handicap. While it`s true that the Welsh would be satisfied with a 1 goal victory and that`s a possibility against an opponent which will park the bus (Wales prefers to play on counters), you have to feel that once they get ahead, they will have opportunities to score more. Odds on the bet are not spectacular, but I feel anything over 1.50 is worth taking. Prediction: Moldova – Wales 0-2.

Pick: Wales (-1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.57 @ 18Bet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 4.48
Event date: 5 September