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Best match in the 3rd round at ATP Shanghai Masters, no doubt about it. The flamboyant Monfils will try to produce an upset against Federer, but the question of course is if he can do it.
Monfils had a solid year after recovering from an injury. He improved with every month passed, and at the moment “LeMonf” is back in the top 50 with some good results to show for, including two ATP finals (Nice, Winston Salem). Gael defeated some top class players this year, like Raonic, Berdych or Haas. Nevertheless, you can’t consider Monfils to be in top form. He still has a lot of work to do in order to regain his best level of play. Recently, Gael was knocked out of the US Open in the 2nd round by Isner and lost in the Tokyo opener to a recovering Tsonga (not at his best) in straight sets.
Federer had the worst year since becoming number 1. The swiss only won one tournament (Halle) and did not play any Grand Slam finals. In addition to this, his recent performance has been horrible for his standards, 2nd round exit at Wimbledon and 4th round exit at US Open. Still, like always, people are too fast to rule out Roger. This guy is still at top class level and is able to mix it up with the best, like he did in Cincinnati against Nadal. The fact that he`s losing to some top 20 guys here and there do not justify him being priced ~1.40 against a Monfils that is not even at his best.
Both players love the surface at Shanghai and have shown very good form so far. Monfils won in straight sets against Ito and Pospisil (struggling a little bit with the canadian), while Roger easily dispatched Seppi after having a bye in the first round.
Federer leads the Head2Head 6-1, winning5 out of 6 in straight sets. Monfils does not have any matchup advantage over Roger. The swiss has recently lost matches against poor opponents because of his unforced errors, but Gael is really not the guy to take advantage of that, like Robredo was in the US Open, since he is also prone to making mistakes.
Federer is highly motivated after the recent performances and he always responded well after his poor showings, an example being just a couple of months ago at Cincinnati after the poor Wimbledon. He showed a good level of play against Seppi, he`l raise it even more in the 3rd round and with Monfils being a familiar opponent for him I expect Federer to take it in straight sets. Monfils did not look able to disturb a motivated top player in his last tournament against Tsonga. Roger will probably make some mistakes but Gael will produce his share of unforced errors so Roger`s experience and overall quality should see him through safely to the second round. My prediction is something like 7-6 6-4 and I think the odds are a little bit inflated, we shouldn`t have over evens for Federer to take it 2-0.
Pick: Federer (-1,5 sets)
Odds: 2.11 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.88
Event date: 10 October
Editor Facts
- Rostick is 1 for 2 at ATP Shanghai and 9 for 12 overall in October
