Montenegro – Romania

Montenegro and Romania will square off in the last match of Eurobasket’s Group C, hosted by Romania. Montenegro is third in the group and that`s where they will probably finish, while the Romanians are dead last with no chances for qualification. Romania will have to play this match without their best player.

Montenegro did what was expected of them in this group, beating Hungary and Czech Republic, while losing to Croatia and Spain. The Montenegrins played well in all matches and were actually pretty close to getting an upset win against Croatia. Montenegro brought a very good team to this Eurobasket, led by Orlando Magic’s star Nikola Vucevic, who is complemented by a number of guys playing for excellent European teams like FC Barcelona, Real Madrid, Valencia or Khimki.

Romania lost all matches in this Eurobasket despite playing at home, and they never had the slightest chance to win a game. They lost to Czech Republic by 15 points, to Croatia by 16, to Spain by 41 and to Hungary by 9. Romania, who already had by far the weakest roster in this Eurobasket, will miss their best player in this match, Vlad Moldoveanu – injured against Hungary.

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The Romanians gave it their all in their previous match against rivals Hungary, as it was always the match in which they hoped to get a result. Unfortunately for them, they were still outplayed and couldn`t get close enough to challenge for victory.

That Hungary loss surely took all energy and morale away from Romania. Now, with nothing left to fight for and coming after 4 consecutive losses, there`s a fair chance Romania will capitulate here. Fatigue could contribute to that, as the Romanian players are not used to playing so many matches in a short period of time, particularly against this level of opposition. They might not have the same energy and motivation which helped them partly compensate for the lack of quality in the previous matches.

Romania will also be badly hurt by the absence of Vlad Moldoveanu (Demir, Turkey), the only player in this Romania team who plays at a good level in Europe and who truly belongs at this Eurobasket. He is also the team’s leader in both points and rebounds in this tournament. It will be a really big problem for the hosts to play without the leader and focal point of their team, a guy who plays 35 minutes per game and touches the ball on every possession, and who is their only consistent offensive threat.

In normal circumstances you would expect Montenegro to beat this Romanian team by more than 20 points, and when you add Romania’s situation, it`s even more likely that Montenegro will cover the spread easily.

However, there is a catch. With this being the last match of the day, Montenegro will likely be assured of the 3rd position by the time the match starts. That could mean they will have no motivation, and there`s even the chance they could rest or limit the minutes of 1-2 players, maybe Vucevic.

That is a risk, but I don`t see it happening, as Montenegro is not Spain or France, to rest players for semifinals or finals. Surely they want to play as well as they can and win as much as they can until getting knocked out (very probably) in one of the next two rounds. Also, they will train and plan the game before knowing other results in the group, so it`s hard to think they will throw that out the window 10 minutes before the match and mix the lineup. Plus, limiting minutes of 1 or 2 key guys won`t mean much, as their bench players are still better than anything Romania has.

All in all, I think the point spread is too low here, and I believe Montenegro will win by more than 20 points. The quality difference is just too big and even if Montenegro might not be fully motivated, there are even more circumstances who work against Romania.

My tip is Montenegro to cover the 14,5 point handicap. You might want to take this early, as odds are dropping after news that Moldoveanu will miss out for the hosts. Prediction: Montenegro – Romania 85 – 60.

Pick: Montenegro -14,5
Odds: 1.91 @ William Hill
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.19
Event date: 7 September