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Montenegro hosts Russia in Group G of the Euro 2016 qualifiers, 5th round. The two teams are tied in points for the 3-4 places (5 points each after 4 rounds).
Montenegro was surprisingly defensive in this Euro 2016 campaign, scoring just 3 goals and receiving only 2 in four matches … strange stats, considering that their best players like Vucinic or Jovetic are in attack and they usually had high scoring games in the last years. For sure their defensive football is improved, but there is also the hazard factor … Montenegro missed a lot of chances, in these qualifiers, also escaped a couple of times from huge goal scoring opportunities.
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Russia almost blew this qualifying campaign in the last two matches … after a good start, they drew with Moldova at home (1-1) and lost 1-0 in Austria. Capello’s defensive style of football is more and more criticized and considering that a win today is mandatory, the Italian manager could take a bit more risks.
The odds for under 2,5 goals are lower than 1.50, which is crazy in my opinion. It is true that the stats suggest few goals and that Russia and Montenegro have been underish teams in these qualies … but there are good chances to see both teams score today. Montenegro is a team that scores and concedes, has players that can make the difference up front and surely their low scoring stats will change sooner rater than later … Russia can not play for a draw, they need to take some risks, so they could look different, more attack – oriented.
I’ll stay away from the under over market because both teams are big fans of 1-1 draws. My tip will be Both to score. Correct score prediction: Montenegro – Russia 1-2.
Pick: Both to score
Odds: 2.27 @ Doxxbet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 8.89
Event date: 27 March
