Mozambique – Gabon

Mozambique will play host to Gabon when the two teams meet in the African 2018 World Cup qualifying second round. Both sides had a bye in the first round, coming directly into this match. The tie will be played over two legs and the winner will qualify to the main round, which will be played in a group stage format.

Mozambique’s squad is a mix of players from the domestic league and guys playing at lower-level mostly in Germany and Portugal. There is some talent there, with players like Simao Mate (Levante) or Mexer (Rennes), but not enough to compete with real chances to qualify for the World Cup. Mozambique has not been able to make much noise in Africa over the last years. Last year they finished third in the African Nations Cup qualifying group with 6 points in 6 matches, but they only lost two times despite playing 4 matches against Cape Verde and Zambia.

Gabon had a disappointing African Nations Cup in the beginning of the year. They were playing great football and seemed able to even challenge for the title, but after beating Burkina Faso 2-0 in the opener, they managed to lose against Congo and Equatorial Guinea. They will want to put that behind them and complete the job against Mozambique over these two legs, as failure to qualify to the main qualifying round would be a disaster.

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Team news: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang will be available to start for Gabon, who pretty much called up the best possible squad for this match, including Lorient’s Ibrahim Ndong, who comes back to the national team after a 4 month absence. However, the visitors will be hurt by the injuries to Musavu-King and Ecuele-Manga, two players that are the usual center back pair for Gabon.

The bookmakers opened the market with odds as low as 1.40 for a Gabonese win, but the price went up to well over evens. I reckon that is normal, as winning on the road in Africa is never easy and Gabon also has the second leg at home to finish the job.

However, the visitors remain solid favorites here and the odds have simply gone from too low to too high. I would not be surprised if the trend is switched and they start dropping on the visitors. It might not be easy for Gabon, but with Aubameyang up front they should be able to edge this, or at least get a draw. Can`t see Gabon having any problems to qualify here and they really should not fall behind after the first match. They are one of the good road teams in Africa, losing just 3 times in the last 15 games played away from home.

My tip on this African World Cup 2018 qualifier is Gabon to win with a 0,25 asian handicap. Prediction: Mozambique – Gabon 0-1.

Pick: Gabon (-0,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.83 @ Bet365
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.64
Event date: 11 November