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Na Li will try to make use of her experience to finally lift the Australian Open trophy on the third attempt, but big-hitting Dominika Cibulkova is in the form of her life and her results until the final look better than Li`s. Two offensive minded players will surely produce an entertaining encounter on Rod Laver Arena in the Australian Open women`s final.
After easily defeating Konjuh and Bencic, Li survived a scare in the third round, having to save a match point to edge Safarova in three sets: 1-6 7-6 6-3. However, the chinese regrouped herself and raised her level in the next round, cruising to the final against Makarova, Penneta and Bouchard. Li was lucky to get a very easy draw due to the top seeds of her half losing early, and if she wins I reckon she`ll be the first Grand Slam champion in a long time to lift the trophy without meeting a top 20 player. It remains to be seen if Li’s tennis is as good as we saw on the court, or if she was just untested. I rate Li as the second best player on the tour when she`s playing her best tennis and I see her and Serena (maybe also Sharapova for her overall career) as the only top-class WTA players in a poor generation.
Aside from the 3-6 6-4 6-1 win against Sharapova in the fourth round, Cibulkova barely lost a couple of games all tournament. She blew off the court the likes of Schiavone, Voegele, Suarez Navarro, Halep and Radwanska and against the last two (in the quarters and semis) she lost only 6 combined games. Dominika is one of the biggest hitters on the tour and when she`s in form, she`s just painting the lines with winners. Her problem was her poor mental state and inconsistency, but here in Melbourne she managed to keep everything under control and mantained a sustained rhythm of top form. Surely the slovakian was the most impressive player so far at the Australian Open.
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Li has a big advantage in the H2H department, leading Cibulkova 4-0, with the last meeting just a couple of months ago at Toronto (hard, 7-6 6-2 Li). The slovakian has always struggled to cope with Li`s attacking, fast paced game and she won a single set in the 4 meetings (clay, Madrid 2010). The chinese has the matchup advantage here and this is of such importance that it could be a deciding factor.
Indeed, Cibulkova met the better opposition so far and she won her matches more clearly than Li, but at a closer look things are not so simple. While Li did not meet top-names, she did meet in-form and confident players. Cibulkova on the other hand met a self-destructing Sharapova, hitting unforced errors all over the place, a Grand Slam non-factor in Simona Halep and a very tired Radwanska, unable to play her game.
Pick Na Li to win this. Li has the experience of 3 Grand Slam finals (1 won) and she is in fact last years` finalist here at the Australian Open. Experience is a huge factor in these kind of matches and, combined with the matchup and with Li`s excellent form, should help the chinese take this one. Cibulkova is one of the most prone players to fall under pressure, and in her first Grand Slam final, against a seasoned opponent who owns the H2H, she might just lose all her form. The low-angle shots of Li will not Allow Cibulkova to hit winner after winner like she did against passive Halep and Radwanska, so I expect Dominika to be troubled by her opponent`s playing style (again, the matchup is key). All in all I can see Li, by far the better player, holding her own and winning rather easily. My prediction is Na Li to win in 2 sets, maybe something like 6-4 6-3. I`ll chose 2-0 instead of the game handicap because it could be closer, but in case it will come to late set heroics, expect Li to showcase her superiority at the end of the sets. The odds are also much better for 2:0.
Pick: Na Li 2:0
Odds: 2.00 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8
Event date: 25 January
Editor Facts
- Rostick is 4 for 8 in Australian Open tips
