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Naomi Osaka will take on Elina Svitolina on Tuesday night in the Australian Open quarterfinals.
Osaka has been pretty up and down in this tournament. She started with two rather comfortable wins against Linette and Zidansek, two very accessible opponents. After that, Osaka had problems against both Hsieh and Sevastova, needing three sets each time. Osaka actually trailed a set and a break in each of those two matches, so while she showed great character to come back, she also looked very vulnerable.
Svitolina was dominant in her first two victories against Golubic and Kuzmova, before losing a set in each of the next two rounds. The Ukrainiean was really on the brink of being knocked out by Zhang in the third round, when she was down 0-3 in the decider and was also struggling with a shoulder injury. However, she bounced back, and didn`t show any other signs of injury in her fourth round win over Keys (6-2 1-6 6-1).
Bet on Osaka vs. Svitolina and claim your 100% (120 Eur) welcome bonus at LSbet!Svitolina leads the H2H 3-2 (all matches on hard court), and also won the previous two meetings. Both were last year, and both were dominated from start to finish by Svitolina, who only lost 6 games in each victory. This will be a classic clash of styles between the aggressive big hitter (Osaka) and the counter punching defender (Svitolina).
Osaka’s stock has gone up a lot after her US Open win last year, and indeed when she is at her best she can beat anybody. That being said, she has not been at her best in this tournament. She had moments in which she was at the top of her game, but she also had plenty of moments in which she did not play well. She made 43 unforced errors against Sevastova and 42 against Hsieh. That will probably not be good enough against Svitolina.
Svitolina wasn`t perfect either, but she did show more consistency than Osaka, and she also seems to match up well against the Japanese player – as the previous two meetings suggest. She will keep sending the ball back, asking questions of Osaka, and we saw this week that Osaka isn`t shy when it comes to making unforced errors.
Svitolina also had perfect preparation for this match by facing another big hitter (the in form Keys) in her previous match, so she will be in rhythm and ready for Osaka`s gameplan.
There`s still a question about the problems Svitolina had with her shoulder in the third round against Zhang, but she seemed fully healthy against Keys in her next match, so that shouldn`t be an issue.
This could be similar to Svitolina`s match against Keys, with Osaka maybe winning a set when / if she manages to find her “A game”, but eventually losing to a more consistent player.
My tip will be Svitolina to win. Backing the Ukrainian to cover the +1,5 set handicap would be the safer option, as Osaka did not manage to maintain a high level for an entire match in this whole tournament, but I will go with the better value, which is the straight win. Prediction: Naomi Osaka – Elina Svitolina 4-6 6-0 4-6.
Pick: Svitolina
Odds: 2.33 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 9.31
Event date: 22 January
