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Even though Napoli is virtually sure to finish on the 3rd place, the hosts will surely want to celebrate the Cup win against Fiorentina in this home game, while also commemorating the fans that died in the horrible incidents that preceded the final. Napoli is the odds-on favorite at San Paolo, meeting an objective-less side in Cagliari.
Napoli played a great match on Saturday in the Italian Cup final, defeating Fiorentina 3-1. Napoli took an early 2 goal advantage and then played a very solid defensive game to win the final rather convincingly. They will hope to carry that performance for the first win in three games in Serie A, after previously drawing with Udinese and Inter.
Cagliari is on the 15th place in the standings and has mathematically escaped relegation after stepping up and winning their last two Serie A games against Genoa (2-1) and Cagliari (1-0). The win against Genoa two rounds ago was actually their first success on the road this season. Cagliari played really bad away from home, posting a statline of 1 win, 8 draws and 8 defeats, scoring just 10 times in 17 outings. It remains to be seen how focused will Cagliari be today after assuring they will play Serie A football again next season.
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Team news & lineups
Napoli is close to full strength for this game – Cabral is the only issue for Rafa Benitez. The spanish manager could however rotate the squad just a little bit after the Cup final. Cagliari can’t count on Nene, Ekdal and Vecino, while Pinilla is a question mark. The visitors could also choose to operate some changes and give a couple of youngsters the chance to play.
Napoli: Reina – Henrique, Fernandez, Albiol, Ghoulam – Jorginho, Inler – Mertens, Insigne, Callejon – Higuain
Cagliari: Avramov – Pisano, Rossettini, Astori, Avelar – Dessena, Conti, Eriksson – Ibarbo, Sau, Ibraimi
This will be a sentimental game for Napoli after winning the Cup and with the fan tragedy that happened on Sunday, so I expect them to come out strong with much more motivation than Cagliari. The visitors are of course the weaker team and they have been a non-factor on the road this season, so Napoli should be able to take care of business at San Paolo. The odds are pretty good for a Napoli win so I will confidently tip the home side to cover the 1,25 goal asian handicap – they covered a 1 goal handicap in each of their last 4 wins. Prediction: Napoli – Cagliari 2-0.
Pick: Napoli (-1,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.98 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.84
Event date: 6 May
