Napoli – Dnipro

Napoli hosts Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk in the first leg of this Europa League semifinal tie.

Napoli was in brilliant form before being shocked by Empoli 4-2 last thursday … but they recovered in style to beat AC Milan 3-0 over the weekend, showing that the Empoli game was just an accident. Napoli has 5 wins in the last 7 games, scoring at least 3 goals in each of them and winning all 5 games with handicap. Even in the 2-2 draw with Wolfsburg and 2-4 defeat to Empoli, Napoli still scored 2 goals per game. Overall 21 games for Napoli in 7 matches, an average of 3 goals per game. Strinic, De Guzman and Michu are unavailable today for the Italians.

Napoli projected lineup:
Andujar – Maggio, Albiol, Britos, Ghoulam – Jorginho, Lopez – Callejon, Hamsik, Insigne – Higuain

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Dnipro did a great job to reach the semifinals … played some very well organized football on defense, but also did not have the toughest draw … Ajax and Club Brugge not being in Napoli’s league in terms of quality. Also they did the tough job mostly at home, they won only 1 game away from 7 tries this season in Europa League (vs Qarabag). Dnipro allowed only 1 game in the previous 9 games in all competitions … in 0-1 defeat to Shakhtar, also their only loss since the defeat vs. Ajax. Zozulya and probably Matheus will not be available for Dnipro ahead of this match.

Dnipro projected lineup:
Bokyo – Egidio, Douglas, Cheberyachko, Fedetskiy – Kankava, Rotan – Luchkevych, Bezus, Konoplyanka – Kalinic

It will be interesting to see the matchup between Napoli’s crazy offense and Dnipro’s defensive strategy … but I think the Italians will win this battle and emerge as winners by a 2+ goal margin. Hosts are just in too good form at the moment and Dnipro is a little vulnerable away from home. Napoli’s first goal could force the visitors to open up a bit and they could well let in another 1 or 2. My tip will be Napoli to win and cover a 1,25 goal asian handicap … Napoli to win to nil could be riskier, but good bet also. Correct score prediction: Napoli – Dnipro 2-0.

Pick: Napoli (-1,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.85 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.8
Event date: 7 May