Betdistrict.com
FC Porto holds a 1-0 edge after winning the first leg in Portugal, but protecting that advantage against Napoli at San Paolo will surely not be an easy task for the portugese side.
The loss in Porto was the only one for Napoli in the last 10 games and the Italians quickly got back t winning ways with a 1-0 succes in a tough road game at Torino this weekend. Napoli is in very good form right now, closing in on Roma for the second place and already qualified in the Italian Cup final. The game in Portugal was pretty close and it could have easily finished with a draw but now Napoli has to win this at home in order to qualify for the next round. The hosts lost a single game at home this season in all competitions, 0-1 to Parma in November, and have 9 wins and 2 draws in the last 11 games at San Paolo.
Porto probably has its worst team in a long time this season after selling a couple of players lately. Just third in the league, Porto lost in the last round 1-0 at Sporting Lisbon, losing pretty much any chance to finish in the top 2 at the end of the season. The hosts are depending big-time on Jackson Martinez`s play right now, by far the best player in the team with 15 goals to his name this season and the man who scored the winner in the Napoli game. Rafa Benitez will look to contain him in Italy and if he does that, Porto might have serious trouble creating chances today as they are clearly not playing very good football right now.
 |
Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Team news and lineups
Jorginho, Maggio, Zuniga and Cabral are out for Napoli. The visitors won`t be able to count on regular GK Helton, Sandro and Ba.
Napoli: Reina – Reveillere, Albiol, Fernandez, Ghoulam – Behrami, Inler – Callejon, Hamsik, Insigne – Higuain
FC Porto: Fabiano – Danilo, Maicon, Mangala, Fucile – Fernando, Defour – Quaresma, Quintero, Eduardo – Martinez
I feel Napoli is good enough to get past that 1-0 deficit from the first leg, especially at home where they are a nightmare opponent for even the best teams in the world. Porto got the lucky breaks to win the first game but they do not have Napoli`s quality, they were much poorer than the italians in the Champions League this season and they are also not in their best form, so Napoli to win seems like a great choice here and the odds are very good – I wasn`t expecting more than 1.80 for this one. When making this bet, I`m also thinking about the fact that Porto would love to lose 2-1 or 3-2 and they would try to protect that scoreline rather than go for the draw, maybe even 1-0 would be satisfying for them. All in all, my tip is Napoli to win and at this price I have to go with high stakes. Prediction: Napoli – FC Porto 2-0. Odds are dropping on the home side.
Pick: Napoli
Odds: 1.91 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.19
Event date: 20 March
