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Napoli will host Villarreal in this high quality Europa League match. Villarreal defeated Napoli 1-0 in the first leg and is a favorite to go trough.
Napoli is a very interesting team. With Sarri and without any new transfers, except for Allan, Napoli changed a lot. They are not that naive team anymore, with a good attack and poor defense. They are a high-tempo, fabulous attacking side. Maybe some sort of hybrid between Barcelona and Dortmund, but with a twist, because in Italy you obviously need better tactical awareness in defense.
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So why don’t i like them to qualify? Because they will face Villarreal. Another brilliant team, with a brilliant coach. These 2 teams are evenly matched if they were to play their best players and maybe 1.7 for Napoli would have been fair, considering that Villarreal is qualified even with 2-1, 3-2 etc … but Napoli will not use their best lineup. The focus is on Scudetto. Villarreal will use their best team here, so that’s it basically.
If you look at the highlights of the first leg, you can see that Napoli without Higuain, Insigne and Hamsik are half the team, because their replacements, Gabbiadini, Mertens, Jorginho, are good but they are not used to playing together. Sarri is not using a rotation policy, like Benitez did and so the fringe players have less impact when they are eventually used. One one side it’s a good thing, because Sarri has consistency, but on the other hand it’s bad because they now face fatigue. Even Sarri admitted after the 1-1 vs Milan that they were tired … so i am 100% sure they will rotate here too and not use the best lineup.
As things stand +0.5 handicap on Villarreal is my bet. I think they have a great chance to protect the advantage taken in the first leg and qualify.
Pick: Villarreal +0,5
Odds: 2.23 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 9.84
Event date: 25 February
