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Last placed Nautico hosts 3rd placed Gremio today in a very interesting game for punters. The hosts are hands down the worst team in the league, gaining only 9 points in the first 18 rounds. They got a shock draw at Corinthians in the last round, but it was pure luck as Corinthians missed a couple of great goalscoring chances. Nautico was on a 6 game losing streak in the Serie A prior to the last round. Even with that 0-0 stalemate against Corinthians, today`s hosts are still far away from escaping relegation, being 13 points behind 16th placed Atletico Mineiro. This team lacks class to compete in the top level of Brazil football and is set to play second league football next year, without gaining too many points in the Serie A.
Regarding team news, Nautico also has some squad problems for this game, with Maranhao, Carioca and Joao Paulo out. Also, their first choice keeper (Berna) is doubtful. Nautico will have difficulties without these players as they have no depth in the squad, with the subs being way below Serie A level – not that the regulars are too good.
Gremio is on a good run and the title contenders find themselves on 3rd place, just 6 points behind leaders Cruzeiro. Gremio has a solid team with some top brazilian stars and their form is excellent. The visitors won 6 out of the last 7 games in the league and are really piling up the pressure on the first two places. Like, Nautico, Gremio has some missing players for today, but it should be easier for them to cope with that because they have adequate replacements. Gremio did not play great away from home this season, but they showed a clear improvement lately since entering this patch of great form.
Nautico is really weak and it would be a miracle for them to get two consecutive results against top teams. Gremio is one class above the home team and with the kind of form they are in, I am confident they will do the job today. Losing points against Nautico, home or away, is not an option for a team looking to finish top 3 and mount a title challenge. My call for this one would be a 3-1 win for Gremio.
Pick: Gremio
Odds: 1.97 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.79
Event date: 11 September
