Netherlands – Chile

Netherlands and Chile will battle it out for the first place in group B. Chile needs a win here, while Netherlands, who are the odds-on favorites in this one, could do with a draw.

Louis van Gaal’s side was in excellent form coming into the World Cup and backed up their recent play with a fantastic 5-1 win against Spain, followed by a little bit less impressive performance in the hard fought 3-2 success with Australia. Netherlands suffers on the defensive end, where they have an inexperienced back line, including the keeper, but the offensive setup is nothing short of brilliant, as Robben and Van Persie (who will miss today) are in absolute top form at the moment. Netherlands should feel confident about their chances to at least hold out for a draw against the South Americans today.

Chile is a solid side with some World Class players, but in my opinion they are not as good as advertised. Chile was the second best team for most of the match against Australia after scorind two early goals, and again benefited from a great start against Spain. Once they held the advantage, Chile did very well to protect it in both games. They do have some weak spots in the team, the midfield is not the greatest if we exclude Vidal, wing play can sometimes become a problem as well.

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Team news & lineups

Netherlands will miss van Persie and Indi, while Chile has a full squad too choose from.

Netherlands: Cillessen – Janmaat, Vlaar, De Vrij, Verhaegh, Blind – De Guzman, De Jong – Sneijder, Robben – Huntelaar

Chile: Bravo – Isla, Jara, Silva, Medel, Mena – Aranguiz, Diaz, Vidal, Vargas – Sanchez

If Netherland denies Chile another early goal / goals, I expect this to end up being a midfield struggle. I think both sides would like to keep a tied score towards the end of the game and make a push then (whoever will need it), as opposed as going down behind early and having a mountain to climb for the rest of the match. Even if the two teams have scored and allowed goals so far, I expect them to neutralize eachother in what is a massive game. The first placed side will probably avoid Brazil in the Round 16, so the stakes are great and few risks are expected – both sides will likely field lineups including 5 defenders, so that`s a good indication of their respective approaches to the match. Another argument for a low-scoring game is Van Persie’s absence. My tip is under 2,5 goals to be scored. I would also fancy a Netherlands win, they are the better team and Chile is slightly overrated, but the Dutch side only needs a draw, so it would be a riskier bet than the under. Prediction: Netherlands – Chile 1-0.

Pick: under 2,5
Odds: 2.15 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 8.05
Event date: 23 June