Netherlands – Mexico

Netherlands and Mexico will feel confident that if they get past this round they will have an excellent chance of reaching the semifinals (Costa Rica or Greece next), so both sides will be really pumped up for this Round 16 clash, not that extra-motivation was needed.

Netherlands started the tournament in brilliant goalscoring form, banging in 8 goals against Spain and Australia and looking in excellent shape. Holland played a great game against Chile as well, winning 2-0 via two late goals, but adopted a more laid-back attitude, since they needed a draw to gain the first place. The Clockwork Orange proved it can play good defense as well when needed, and will hope to continue the excellent form against a very strong Mexico side today.

I did not trust Mexico at all prior to the tournament, actually I tipped them to finish last in Group A (what a stupid prediction from my behalf). However, the North Americans played excellent football and eased into the Round 16 over a strong Croatia side, also holding Brazil to a 0-0 draw. Mexico has a great defensive setup and can play the counterattacking game with sound perfection. If needed, they can also rely on individual quality with the likes of Dos Santos or Chicharito Hernandez capable of coming up with something special.

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Team news & lineups

Netherlands has no injuries or suspensions ahead of this clash, Mexico will miss Vasquez.

Holland: Cillessen – De Vrij, Vlaar, Martins Indi – Janmaat, De Jong, De Guzman, Blind – Sneijder, Robben, Van Persie.

Mexico: Ochoa – Aguilar, Moreno, Márquez, Rodríguez, Layún – Guardado, Dos Santos, Herrera – Peralta, Hernández.

Listen, Netherlands has some amazing quality up front, but I really don`t expect this to be a high scoring encounter. Instead, it should be similar to Netherlands’ 2-0 win over Chile, or Mexico`s 0-0 draw with Brazil. We should expect the North Americans to rely on their strong defense and try to hit on the breaks, while Holland will keep possession but won`t risk too much and will be content on waiting for the best opportunity. The stakes are huge and a cautious approach is all but guaranteed from the two sides. My tip is under 2,5 goals and if you feel like taking more risks today at higher odds, you could also try a bet on the draw. Mexico to qualify might also be worth a shot, the Americans have the ability to upset just about anyone but, as I said, I will stick with the safer tip on under 2,5 goals. Prediction: Netherlands – Mexico 1-1 (1-2 A.E.T.).

Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.78 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.24
Event date: 29 June