Pelicans – Warriors

New Orleans Pelicans will host Golden State Warriors for the second time this season on Tuesday night / Wednesday morning (European time).

The Pelicans (8-17, 5-8 home) have lost 5 consecutive games before claiming a dramatic win in their last outing, beating the lowly Phoenix Suns by 1 point. Mainly because of injuries, New Orleans is struggling to play at a high level this season and they will very likely miss on the playoffs. On the bright side they did get back point guard Jrue Holiday in the last game, but he`s still not ready to play big minutes.

Golden State (21-4, 12-2 away) will play its 3rd road game in 4 days and they weren`t particularly solid in the first two. They got blown out by Memphis for their 4th loss of the season and almost lost against Minnesota as well, but eventually won due to a 4th quarter rally. Klay Thompson and Steph Curry shot a combined 8-28 against Memphis and Durant was 6-21 against Minnesota, so that was the main reason for GS’s struggles – along with the fact that Pachulia missed both games and Iguodala did not play against Memphis.

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The two teams already met two times this season. In the first meeting Steph Curry only had 23 points, but did it by shooting 42% from the field and making just 3 free throws – both well below his usual numbers. In the second meeting Steph Curry scored 46 and broke the record for most three pointers in a game, so he`s averaging 34.5 pts vs the Pelicans this season.

I believe Steph Curry will go off again against the Pelicans in this match.

Steph has not played well in the last 5 matches, averaging 19.4 points per game. He`s averaging 25.4 per game for the season, so he is definitely due to have a big night very soon. Circumstances make this night very likely to be the one in which Curry explodes.

In the last game against Minnesota he attempted just 13 shots – 8 less than Durant and 8 less than Thompson, but still scored 22 points. Curry also played by far the least minutes in that game and he sat for almost the entire 4th quarter while Durant and Thompson played most of that 4th quarter.

These three usually take turns shooting the ball, so tonight it should be Steph Curry who has the most attempts – especially since Durant was horrible in Golden State’ last match, so he is likely to avoid taking so many shots for a second consecutive game. Curry will also have a favorable matchup at PG with Frazier / Holiday.

All facts suggest Steph will be the focal point of Golden State’s offense tonight and he should be very involved starting the game, taking the most shots in the first quarter as he is the player that sacrificed himself the last time out and he also played the least minutes. The fact that he had a monster game against the Pelicans in the last meeting is another reason to expect many shots from him.

My tip is Curry to score over 26 points, I can see him putting up 30+ here. There is the danger of him sitting the 4th quarter in case Warriors has a big lead, but that would require GS to put up a lot of points in the first three quarters and Curry is the favorite to score the most. Prediction: NO Pelicans – GS Warriors 100 – 120.

Pick: Steph Curry over 26 points
Odds: 1.88 @ Betsafe
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.92
Event date: 14 December