Betdistrict.com
The New Orleans Saints will host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFL divisional playoff round on Sunday night. It will be Drew Brees against Tom Brady with a spot in the NFC Championship game up for grabs.
The Saints finished the regular season with a 12-4 record (6-2 at home), which was impressive considering the fact that Brees missed some games. In the WildCard round last week, they got past the Chicago Bears 21-9 in comfortable fashion.
The Buccs ended the regular season 11-5 (6-2 away). There were many ups and downs for them, which may be excusable given that they made a big change at QB by adding Tom Brady this season. The Bucs seemed to have got their act together and finished the season with 4 consecutive wins, but they didn’t look that fantastic in a 31-23 victory over a mediocre Washington team in the Wildcard round.
The Saints have been dominant against the Bucks this season, winning both meetings easily: 34-23 and 38-3! They have been the better team and seemingly match up well against this Tampa Bay side.
Based on the numbers and on what we have seen, one might have expected the Saints to be larger favorites than just three points here, but Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are given a lot of credit by the general public.
I feel that most arguments people are making for Tampa Bay are vague and wrapped up in cheap, empty cliches. You know how you roll your eyes when you hear analysis like “they wanted it more”, “they couldn’t handle the pressure” and things like that? That’s what I feel when I hear the most common arguments made by experts for Tampa Bay:
- “Tom Brady can’t lose three times in a season against the same team” (why not? in fact, imagine what kind of convoluted logic one must use to make Tampa Bay’s two blowout losses to the Saints this season an argument for … Tampa Bay)
- “Brady knows how to win big games”(oh come on! and anyway, Brees doesn’t?)
- “Brady is 13-2 in the Divisional playoffs”(he was younger and on another team).
And obviously it is not all about Tom Brady, or Drew Brees for that matter. The Saints have proved for the entirety of this season that they are a more reliable team, and should win this. Even if Tampa Bay looked better recently, it’s hard to overlook how dominant the Saints have been against them this year.
If you take away Brady from the Bucs and replace him with an equally gifted QB with a different name, the Saints would be priced below 1.50 to advance. In fact, those were the odds before the public started to move them up.
New Orleans’ exceptional defense is more than able to apply pressure on the QB and should make life hard for Tom Brady here. That could be the key, as the Bucs have the worst rushing offense of all the teams remaining in the playoffs. I am backing the hosts to win a hard fought clash and advance to the NFC Championship game against the Packers. Prediction: New Orleans Saints – Tampa Bay Buccanneers 27 – 19.
Pick: Saints
Odds: 1.67 @ MelBet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.03
Event date: 17 January
So i do agree with you when you say it is a bad match up for tampabay.but this is the kind of games Brady overcomes his opponents.You said people say Brady win big games and Brees not? Wheel he kind of doesn t. At 42 he has one super bowl apparence and Brady has 9.Also Brees can t complain all these years he had one of the greatest coaches in Sean Peyton.Plus in that blowout earlier Antonio Brown was he s first game.now he seem ro connect with Brady.The Bucs offensse just seams to cocking right now.plus brees did not play good against the bears last week.Tampa is also performing better on the road.And this is the advantage when you lose 2 in a row against the same team.the third time you can make adjustments and trust me Brady will make them.He has the necesary weapons.This will be a good one to watch
You make sensible points, however I have to say again that I think this “big game” argument is vague and just a cliche in my eyes. What does it even mean, that Brees at 40 with tens of playoff games under his belt is gonna start having shaky hands under the pressure? Doubt it. Brady has been and still is great, no doubt, but he had the Patriots system and coaching as well. Brees had good teams and coaching too, but nobody was at the level of the Patriots ad Belichick.
Regarding the Bears game, it’s hard to look good against that defense. Guess we’ll see, GL mate 🙂
Forgot to congratulate you, you were right! 🙂