New Zealand – Argentina

No time for experiments in Pool C of the 2015 Rugby World Cup, as the best two teams in the group, New Zealand and Argentina, will meet right from the first stage in a match that will decide the first place.

New Zealand is hands down the best team in the World right now and many people (me included) believe this is the best All Black side that ever competed in the RWC. There`s just an incredible mix of youth, experience, power, speed and skill in this side and as far as I`m concerned they can only be defeated by South Africa, if the Springboks have a stellar day. Looking at how SA performed yesterday, that might not happen.

New Zealand will field the best lineup today, no experiments, as coach Steve Hansen stated. The All Blacks won 41-13 against Australia in the last test match and they beat Argentina by 21 points in both of the last two meetings (2015, 2014).

Argentina has clearly been the most improved Rugby Nation over the last decade and their inclusion in the Rugby Championship made them even better. The Pumas are more ore less on par with the top European sides right now, though they could improve a bit on the wings and particularly from a fitness standpoint – they tend to collapse in the last 15-20 minutes against the big Southern Hemisphere teams. Unfortunately for Argentina, they suffered a couple of crucial injuries ahead of the World Cup, their depth is not the best right now, so that could make their stamina issues even worse.

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Lineups:

New Zealand: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Nehe Milner-Skudder, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Tony Woodcock

Argentina: 15 Joaquin Tuculet, 14 Santiago Cordero, 13 Marcelo Bosch, 12 Juan Martin Hernandez, 11 Juan Imhoff, 10 Nicolas Sanchez, 9 Tomas Cubelli, 8 Leonardo Senatore, 7 Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, 2 Agustin Creevy (c), 1 Marcos Ayerza

Argentina can mix it up with the best in the world on their day, but they just don`t seem to be at full strength in this World Cup, while New Zealand is truly better than ever. Missing 2-3 key players could most likely prove crucial against a side as strong as the All Blacks. Look for the Pumas to challenge New Zealand in the first half, but the All Blacks will run away with the match in the last 20 minutes, beating up the Pumas particularly with fast wing play.

While some people expect Argentina to even challenge for the victory, I think they are missing the plot completely. The Pumas will not be at their best, while New Zealand is and should be able to win this by a margin of 25 to 30 points. My tip is New Zealand to cover the 20,5 point handicap. Prediction: New Zealand – Argentina 40 – 14.

Pick: New Zealand -20,5
Odds: 1.94 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.58
Event date: 20 September