New Zealand – Argentina

New Zealand hosts Argentina on Saturday morning (European time) in the third round of the Rugby Championship – and right now this seems to be a matchup between the two most in form teams in the Southern Hemisphere.

The All Blacks are simply flawless at the moment. Despite losing a few big names due to retirement, the team looks better than ever and at this rate you wonder when and how could anybody beat them again. New Zealand simply obliterated Australia both home and away in the first two rounds, winning by a combined margin of 54 points, but that could have easily been 70 or so points. The running game of New Zealand is simply breathtaking, their handling is unbelievable. They do not have a weak spot and do not make mistakes.

Argentina is on the back of a massive 26-24 victory against South Africa, after they lost to the same team in the last minute in the first round. The Pumas continue their development in rugby and a case can be made that they might be the second best team in the world right now, with South Africa and Australia struggling (though England could be in the mix as well). Still, Argentina remains a long way behind New Zealand and only circumstances allowed them to snatch that win over South Africa. Argentina played a terrific game, South Africa was dirt poor and still the Pumas almost lost it at the end. They were also fortunate that the Boks threw away 11 points from penalties – which were clearly key in South Africa’s loss.

Bet on New Zealand vs. Argentina with the best Rugby Championship odds at 1xBet!

Team news & lineups:

Both teams will make 3 changes to the lineups that started in the second round two weeks ago. Argentina continues to miss key players Imhoff, Bosch and Ayerza. On top of that, Montero is also out after suffering injury against South Africa.

New Zealand: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Israel Dagg, 13 Malakai Fekitoa, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Sam Cane, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Joe Moody

Argentina: 15 Joaquín Tuculet, 14 Matías Moroni, 13 Matías Orlando, 12 Juan Martín Hernández, 11 Santiago Cordero, 10 Nicolás Sánchez, 9 Martín Landajo, 8 Facundo Isa, 7 Javier Ortega Desio, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Matías Alemanno, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Ramiro Herrera, 2 Agustín Creevy (c), 1 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro

Argentina played a few solid games against New Zealand lately and lost by just 10 points in last year’s World Cup. Nevertheless, circumstances seem to be stacked against them this time more so than in the past.

Depth and fitness level are a huge concern for Argentina coming into this match. The Pumas always fade on in the last 20 minutes or so against the top sides (did it in both games vs South Africa as well) and now there`s an even bigger danger of that happening – and at a higher magnitude.

Argentina misses a number of absolute key players, which is a huge problem when you take on a team like New Zealand. They also gave it their absolute all against South Africa two weeks ago, they were dead tired in the last minutes, barely standing up at the end of the match. Fortunately they had plenty of time to recover, but that colossal effort might still come back to haunt them. With all this in mind and knowing the weak bench of the Pumas, there`s a real possibility for New Zealand to put on a try fest in the last 20 minute or so.

The circumstances are clearly favoring a big New Zealand win here, but unfortunately the bookies did their job very well and set a high handicap line. If New Zealand starts strong then we can definitely see a 30+ points win. If Argentina stays close in the first half, then the result will probably be around the 24 point spread line. All in all, I definitely expect New Zealand to run away with the game in the last 20-30 minutes, their pace and explosiveness on the wings will be way too much for the tired legs of Argentina to handle.

My tip is New Zealand to cover the 23,5 handicap, they will go for the bonus point win and I trust they will get it. Still, I will keep the stakes respectable because the handicap line is indeed high. Argentina to see a yellow card might also be a good idea, but that bet is too volatile for me to take. Prediction: New Zealand – Argentina 45 – 16.

Pick: New Zealand -23,5
Odds: 1.96 @ 1xBet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.72
Event date: 10 September