New Zealand – Argentina

The 2017 Rugby Championship resumes this Saturday after a one week break, as Argentina will travel to New Plymouth to take on the mighty All Blacks in the third round of the tournament.

Surprisingly, New Zealand is only second in the standings after two rounds, being surpassed by South Africa on points difference, so the All Blacks will definitely look to make a statement in this match against Argentina. New Zealand is coming after a narrow home win against Australia, a spectacular rugby game in which they needed a late Barrett try to salvage a 35-29 victory despite being 1.02 pre match odds favorites. Previously, in the first round, New Zealand won 54-34 in Australia, playing 50 minutes of stellar rugby in that game.

Argentina did not start this Rugby Championship well. The Pumas lost by 22 points in South Africa, never being able to quite impose themselves, and followed that up with an even more disappointing loss – by 18 points to the same South Africa, but at home. Argentina failed to cover the point spread each time, so clearly they have played below expectations. Looking at this current Argentina team, they might be in for a long rugby championship.

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Team news & lineups:

New Zealand will mix it up a bit here, leaving a few usual starters on the bench, but it`s not like they are resting key guys. Argentina will make no less than 6 changes to the lineup that lost to South Africa, some due to injury, dome due to managerial choice.

New Zealand: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Israel Dagg, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Nehe Milner-Skudder, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Vaea Fifita, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Joe Moody

Argentina: 15 Joaquin Tuculet, 14 Santiago Cordero, 13 Matias Moroni, 12 Jeronimo de la Fuente, 11 Emiliano Boffelli, 10 Nicolas Sanchez, 9 Tomas Cubelli, 8 Benjamin Macome, 7 Javier Ortega Desio, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Matias Alemanno, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, 2 Agustin Creevy (c), 1 Lucas Noguera Paz

I have been singing New Zealand’s praises all year long, but it may be time to acknowledge they lost a small step compared to last year, when they were demolishing everybody by 30 – 50 points on a regular basis. One of the reason may be injuries to a couple of key players.

While still the best team in the world and capable to obliterate anybody on their day, the All Blacks have showed a few weaknesses this year – like drawing the series against the B&I lions, losing the second half in Australia 14-28 (after leading 42-6 at half time), and particularly almost losing last round at home to the same Australians.

However, unfortunately for Argentina, they took an even bigger step backwards. Last year the Pumas showed a lot of quality in the Rugby championship, but they are clearly on the downtrend right now. Strategy is to blame, as Argentina denied eligibility for guys who are playing abroad, so they are missing a few of their best players – and they don`t have the depth to make up for it. Argentina right now is basically the Jaguares club franchise, a team which had a very disappointing season in the Super Rugby – and with these two losses in the Rugby Championship so far, morale and form are definitely very low.

The Pumas will surely be shredded by New Zealand’s backs, but the problem for Argentina is that their scrum didn`t look dominant against South Africa, while New Zealand’s scrum was excellent against Australia. The Argentineans always constructed their game around their world class scrum, so if they can`t stay on par with New Zealand in this department, they will be in for a long day.

The 29,5 handicap set by the bookies looks very high indeed, but as I said many times before, when it comes to New Zealand such lines do not look as scary. The All Blacks can score 20 points on you in less than 10 minutes when they step on the gas, and they might do just that in this match.

Last season Argentina played a marvelous match in New Zealand, the game was basically tied until the 50 minute mark, but the Pumas still lost by 35 points – being blown off the court in the last half an hour. They are well known to fold physically late in games, it happened in their 2 Rugby Championship games this year as well, and it will probably happen again in New Zealand – especially with the All Star bench NZ has at its disposal in this match, and with them being so much younger than the Pumas (Dagg is NZ’s oldest starter at 29 y/o).

One thing that could work against New Zealand is the weather. New Plymouth will probably see rain at game time, so that has the potential to cause handling errors and make running rugby more difficult. However, such conditions can hurt the All Blacks against sides like the British & Irish Lions or England. It`s hard to see the weather having much of an impact against Argentina, a team that is already struggling with handling errors and discipline. It will be to their disadvantage as well.

Look for the All Blacks to be sharp and ruthless in this game, they want to show they are still the same team as last year and they want to regain the top spot in the tournament. Even with a few tweaks in their starting XV they should be strong enough to win this handily, and let`s not forget Argentina tweaked their team as well.

The All Blacks should start strong, build a lead, and add on it late when the Pumas will likely fade. My tip is New Zealand to cover the 29,5 point handicap, I think the line should be around 35 points here, even with the weather. I fully expect a big home win and I will take the risk of a 10 unit bet here. Prediction: New Zealand – Argentina 53 – 15.

Pick: New Zealand -29,5
Odds: 1.99 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.90
Event date: 9 September