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The 2015 Rugby World Cup grand final is finally upon us and it`s hard to argue that New Zealand and Australia are the most deserving teams to reach the last act. With New Zealand priced as a 1.40 favorite by the bookmakers, this should be a cracking game at Twickenham between the two Southern Hemisphere rivals.
The winners will become the leading side in World Cup history, with three trophies, while New Zealand is also aiming to become the first ever side to defend their title after beating France 8-7 in the 2011 RWC final. Australia never lost a World Cup final on British soil, while New Zealand was never able to win the tournament away from home.
After a mediocre performance in the group stages, New Zealand stepped it up in the knockout stages with a fabulous 62-13 win over France, followed by a less impressive but still solid 20-18 win over South Africa. Despite the score being so close against the Boks, there wasn`t much drama in the end, as everybody had a feeling of certainty that New Zealand will win – and they did, denying South Africa any opportunities in the final minutes. This will be the last World Cup match for many of New Zealand’s greats, including McCaw, Carter and Ma’a Nonu. It`s really hard to find a fault with this All Blacks side, even in the mediocre group stage performance the only problem was that they did not push more – they were still making virtually no mistakes.
Australia had a truly great World Cup and after winning the Rugby Championship this year, they will be confident about their chances in the final. However, after dominating and winning the Group of death, Australia did show a lot of weaknesses that were visible for the trained eye. They almost (and maybe should have) lost to Scotland in the quarters and while it`s true that they were not themselves without Pocock, Folau and with Foley having a bad day, the performance was still underwhelming. The 29-15 victory over Argentina also looks convincing and it was, but Argentina was within 7 points late on and had a couple of chances. Australia allowed too many breaks from Argentina, who was simply unable to finish from the 5 meter line (this is where Australia’s defense has been impecable this tournament). All this happened against an opponent over which Australia held a massive matchup advantage, as they are strongest exactly where Argentina is weakest.
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Team news & lineups:
New Zealand will use the same lineup (and substitutes) they used in the semifinals, while Australia will make one change – as Scott Sio comes back in the starting 15. Pocock and Folau will start, but it`s questionable if they are at 100%.
New Zealand: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Nehe Milner-Skudder, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Joe Moody.
Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Matt Giteau, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Will Genia, 8 David Pocock, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 Rob Simmons, 4 Kane Douglas, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Stephen Moore (c), 1 Scott Sio.
Australia defeated New Zealand 27-19 at home as they won the shortened Rugby Championship this season, but it was the only win for the Wallabies in the last 12 meetings. New Zealand won the last direct match 41-13 in preparation for this World Cup and they have been utterly dominant in the Head 2 Head department against the Wallabies – springing questions about the matchup and about the ability of Australia to counter New Zealand.
The much praised Australian defense was indeed the best in tournament on the 5 meter line, but they allowed opponents to get there too often, including in the semifinals against Argentina. The Pumas had 13 clean breaks (!!!) in the Australian half. This won`t cut it against New Zealand, who will not forgive Australia is they get so close to the end zone. The All Blacks master all possible options to score from there and they won`t be turned over or penalized like Wales or Argentina.
If Pocock and / or Folau are not at 100% or will suffer early injuries, Australia is doomed in this match. Foley also needs to step up to the level he showed in the group stages if the Aussies are to stand a chance, because he was dreadful in the quarters and mediocre in the semis. With his rival Dan Carter the best fly-half in the world and with the All Blacks brilliant at the kicking game, Foley is starting to look more like a liability than a certainty ahead of this match.
It has to be noted that Nigel Owens will referee the final, he`s the best in the world right now and likes to facilitate an open game, which should favor both teams, but you have to feel that it will favor New Zealand an extra bit, as they are the team that runs the ball more.
Look for parity in scrums, a small advantage for Australia at the breakdown, but New Zealand is much better at the kicking game, including penalties, they are better ball carriers and have the advantage on the wide side as well. The Wallabies deserve so much respect and are such a strong side, but they just don`t seem to have enough to beat this New Zealand team and the weaknesses / mistakes that Argentina did not punish (Scotland did) will likley make them lose by more than just a few points.
I have to say this has been a really tough one to call and it`s only natural to be so in a World Cup final. However, when it`s all said and done, Australia is simply the team that showed more weaknesses during this tournament. New Zealand barely showed any weak spots, they are the better overall team and one can argue that they have a matchup advantage as well, which is always key. There are all kinds of little factors that turn the balance in New Zealand’s favor here. With a full squad available they should be able to win this without the drama that happened 4 years ago, when they barely defeated France by 1 point. The over also looks like it has more chances than the under, but my tip is New Zealand to win with a -5 handicap. Prediction: New Zealand – Australia: 28 – 19.
Pick: New Zealand -5,5
Odds: 1.88 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 8.80
Event date: 31 October
photo by planet rugby
Great article again. I understand and agree with all points you touched on.
Player for player, the All Blacks have a slight edge hence the favorite tag. In a vacuum, i think this would be a close match.
But there are a number of factors working against Australia which, although small, collectively represent a big disadvantage:
-Australia are more tired. They had to play Eng, Wales and Fiji in the group stage and, although they won, it was a grueling pool and they’re probably still feeling the effects of those games.
Contrast this to NZ, who had a tough first game vs Argentina but were then able to rotate the squad at will over the remaining pool games. Yes, NZ played SA last weekend which would’ve left them bruised but Aus played an equally physical Argentina and look worse for wear.
-NZ have a stronger bench which should be telling in the last 20 minutes.
-Referee likely to accommodate a running game (suiting NZ) as you rightly say
With NZ holding the player advantage and given the factors above, I wouldn’t be surprised to see NZ win by more than 10 points. We know they can be relentless at times as France will attest.
I have NZ minus 19 points at $5.50.
If NZ can finish their chances, i think we will see them toy with Australia in the last 20 minutes like a cat does to mice.
As I said, there are many little factors that give NZ the edge here. I don`t agree with the “fatigue” factor. Australia is not Argentina, their players are used to this and in the final they will leave everything on the court.
We seem to be in agreement with everything else, good point about the bench, though Australia has some solutions as well, but none of them are impact players like Sonny Bill Williams, for example. Maybe Tatafu Polota Nau, but even he is far away from the likes of SBW.
NZ -19 is a big stretch, Australia are no mugs, but at that price, why not?
Your final statement pretty much sums up the match. Will NZ have chances? From what we saw from Australia, the answer is Yes. Will they finish them? Yes. I don`t think there is an “if” here. Let`s hope for a great final!
Rostick, I followed your tips and I think it is fair to congratulate you on some great previews in this tournament. I have to admit I was laughing with my friends when you and others were picking Australia over my England, but man was I wrong. You picked some great winners. I agree with you on New Zealand, but I am not sure about the spread, it will be close. You are talking about Pocock like he is a small factor, “maybe he’s fit, maybe not at 100%” but no, he is a huge factor and I think if he is at 100% Australia will win, but for the sake of both of us I don’t think he is fully fit. Looking forward to your rugby tips. Good luck.
great analyze but i have australia to win i think the odds are good.
Good luck, Radu!