New Zealand – Australia

New Zealand and Australia will square off in the second round of the 2017 Rugby Championship, after New Zealand won the previous meeting last week in Sydney by 20 points.

In the first round New Zealand picked up right from where they left off last year, playing some brilliant fast paced rugby to claim a 54-6 lead after 50 or so minutes in Sydney. The All Blacks were dominant and a joy to watch, but they had a surprising letdown in the last 30 minutes – allowing Australia to score 4 unanswered tries and claw back to a much more honorable 34 – 54 scoreline. It was an easy win for New Zealand, but those last 30 minutes will be a reason for worry.

Australia will surely draw confidence from their performance in the late stages of last week’s match, but they will also be aware that they still lost by 20 points and were in danger of suffering a historic loss. Even with the comeback, the 54 points by NZ were the most Australia ever conceded at home against their rivals. Until that late rally the Wallabies looked utterly useless and their lines were broken like butter by a knife in front of the All Blacks.

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Team news & lineups:

Compared to last week, New Zealand will miss Franks, while the Wallabies will miss Coleman and Kerevi. Coleman is a massive blow for them, as he was one of Australia`s best players in Sydney.

New Zealand: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Ryan Crotty, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Sam Cane, 6 Liam Squire, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Joe Moody

Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Dane Haylett-Petty, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Kurtley Beale, 11 Henry Speight, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Will Genia, 8 Sean McMahon, 7 Michael Hooper (c), 6 Ned Hanigan, 5 Rory Arnold, 4 Rob Simmons, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Scott Sio

Credit to Australia for losing by “only” 20 last week after it looked like they could lose by 80, but in all honestly their late heroics were facilitated by New Zealand relaxing, as the All Blacks started making handling errors due to loss of focus, and they weren`t trying quite as hard on defense. The substitutes were also surprisingly poor, and they got to hear it from coach Hansen after the game.

Now New Zealand will be much more careful to play at the same level for 80 minutes, particularly after Steve Hansen reportedly focused on this in the week prior to the match. The passing of All Black legend Colin Meads will add another dimension to the match and a motivation for the hosts.

Australia is just not good enough right now, particularly due to their rugby at club level being in shambles. The players aren`t as good as in the past, and their chemistry at NT level is definitely poor. The Australian club teams made a fool of themselves in Super Rugby this season, one of them was actually kicked out of the competition, and they lost all 26 matches against New Zealand teams this year!

The Wallabies are worse in pretty much every aspect of the game. Their forwards can`t compete, as it was seen last week in Sydney, and when it comes to the wide game obviously nobody can match New Zealand. Australia actually matches up poorly against New Zealand, as they don`t have the discipline to defend the speed and penetrating ability of the All Blacks. In these circumstances, it`s hard to see what options the Wallabies have to slow down their opponents even for small periods, let alone for the entire match.

The fact that Nigel Owens will be the ref will be another disadvantage for Australia, as he favors a fast paced game which will help the All Blacks offense.

Expect a replay of last week`s game, but without that surprising 28-0 rally by Australia in the second half. Look for the All Blacks to break the Wallabies lines again with speed and quick offloading, setting themselves up for spectacular fast paced tries.

New Zealand should definitely win this game and do it comfortably, but the question is if they will be able to cover the handicap. The line looks pretty big at 27,5 points (some bookies are going as high as 29.5), but such large margins are never as high as they seem for a team like New Zealand – who can realistically score 28 points on you in 10 minutes, as they proved in the past. Last week they scored 8 tries in 50 minutes against Australia, in Sydney!

I trust my analysis and my tip will be New Zealand to cover the 27,5 handicap. They won 6 in a row against Australia and in each of those wins they covered the handicap set by the bookies at that point. They averaged 40 points in the 4 meetings played over the last 12 months. With the Wallabies being in one of their worst moments in recent time, it could get ugly for them yet again. Prediction: New Zealand – Australia 45 – 11.

Pick: New Zealand -27,5
Odds: 1.96 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.68
Event date: 26 August