New Zealand – Australia

New Zealand and Australia will meet on Saturday in the second round of the Rugby Championship, after the All Blacks made light work of the Wallabies last weekend in Sydney. A win for New Zealand would also see them lift the Bledisloe Cup (a three test yearly series between the two teams) for the 16th time in a row.

New Zealand started the Rugby Championship in classic dominating fashion, blowing Australia off the field last week in Sydney. It was an exciting 38-13 victory for the All Blacks, who were hands down the better team and played their vintage explosive brand of rugby. Earlier this year New Zealand had a solid three test series with France, winning those games by 13, 35 and 41 points. As such, there are no signs of the All Blacks slowing down, and chances are they will end this Rugby Championship with 6 wins out of 6 games for a third straight year.

Australia had some hopes of challenging the All Blacks last week, given that they actually won the previous meeting back in 2017, although that was a rather meaningless test match (even if there are no “friendlies” in rugby). The Australians also saw some improvements at club level this season, with the Waratahs reaching the Super Rugby semifinals, although that was a bit circumstantial. All in all, the Wallabies were brought down to earth last week and were shown that a lot of improvement is still needed before they can even get close to New Zealand’s level.

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Team news & lineups:

New Zealand will make 2 changes to last week`s lineup, both forced by injuries and both in the backline. The All Blacks will miss Rieko Ioane and Ryan Crotty, two of their most impactful players, so that will be a blow. However, the All Blacks have amazing depth and will be able to replace the two stars with two other super players, Laumape and Jordie Barrett.

Australia has bigger problems. Besides the old injuries to Kerevi and Kuridrani, the Wallabies will now also miss Tupou and Folau. Israel`s Folau absence will be a huge one, as he may well be Australia’s best player, and definitely their most dynamic man. With these injuries, Australia will be forced to field almost a second string backline, which is not something you usually get away with when facing the All Blacks.

New Zealand: 15 Jordie Barrett, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Jack Goodhue, 12 Ngani Laumape, 11 Waisake Naholo, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Sam Cane, 6 Liam Squire, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Joe Moody

Australia: 15 Dane Haylett-Petty, 14 Jack Maddocks, 13 Reece Hodge, 12 Kurtley Beale, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Will Genia, 8 David Pocock, 7 Michael Hooper (c), 6 Lukhan Tui, 5 Adam Coleman, 4 Izack Rodda, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Scott Sio

Last year New Zealand won by 20 points in Australia in the Rugby Championship opener, but they had problems in the next round at home, needing a last minute try to defeat the Wallabies. As such, Australia will draw some confidence from what happened last year, and will hope to repeat that great bounce back performance.

However, that was only one of two matches from the last nine in which Australia was not blown out by New Zealand. The All Blacks won 7 of the last 9 H2H meetings by more than 17 points, and were dominant in their 25 point blowout of Australia last week in Sydney.

It must also be considered that Eden Park has always been a nightmare venue for Australia to visit, as they lost the last 17 tests they played here, including the last 4 by an average margin of 27 points.

The All Blacks simply look unstoppable right now and they should be able to hand Australia another big beating, especially with the Wallabies having to improvise in their backline. New Zealand also has two absences in that area, but they have much better replacements available. The absence of Folau for the Wallabies will be badly felt, as he was the one player which could constantly put the All Blacks defense under pressure. His injury might well cost the Wallabies 5-10 points here.

With New Zealand having the experience of last year, when they almost blew it at home after winning big on the road, expect them to start strong and focused and look to build a big lead. Captain Kieran Read gave assurances that the team is fully focused and wary of the Australian threat, so you would expect a no-nonsense performance from the All Blacks here.

The point spread is set pretty high at 22.5 points, but as it is usually the case, it is difficult to go against the All Blacks. They can literally cover this number in a 10-15 minute stretch if they find their rhythm, so I will bet on New Zealand to win by more than 22 points. They have proved again and again that they can cover these large handicaps, and betting on them to do so has been nothing but profitable in the last few years.

The All Blacks are just too dominant right now, they have the Eden Park factor, and Australia has too many vulnerabilities. Prediction: New Zealand – Australia 41 – 10.

Pick: New Zealand -22,5
Odds: 2.00 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8
Event date: 25 August