New Zealand – B&I Lions

New Zealand will host the British&Irish Lions in Wellington in the second match of the three game series, after the All Blacks dominated the first and won by 15. This second test will start Saturday at 07:35 GMT so I`m a little late with my pick (still more than 10 hours to go), as for some reason I thought it will Sunday. I hope many of you can still read and maybe take advantage of my preview.

New Zealand was absolutely terrific last year, with many people (me included) dubbing them as the best team in the history of the sport. They lost a game late in the year in Chicago against Ireland due to extreme fatigue, but they got right back on track this season. In the two matches played this year, both in the last few weeks, New Zealand demolished Samoa 78-0 and confidently beat the British & Irish Lions by 15 points.

The Lions (composed of the best players from Ireland, Wales, England and Scotland) were completely dominated by New Zealand in the first game and they were lucky to lose by only 15 – as the real margin should have been more like 20 – 25 points. It hasn`t been the best tour for the Lions so far, as they struggled against New Zealand’s club teams as well – including being held to a draw 3 days ago by the Highlanders, albeit that was more like a “B” Lions team, and new players will come in for the big test today.

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Team news & lineups:

New Zealand will miss Ben Smith and Ryan Crotty, both world class performers, but they have equally strong solutions on the bench. Naholo and Lienert-Brown come in, so New Zealand won`t lose anything – they might actually gain something with these two superstars hungry to show they deserved a start in the first place.

The lineup chosen by the Lions has been criticized and for good reason. Not only are there too many Welsh player in the first 15, but the (Welsh) coach decided to field fly half Farrell at No.12 – that will give the Lions more kicking options, but their centers will be exposed – and it will happen against the scariest, most powerful opponent in the world. The cherry on the top is that the best Lions player last week, Ben Te`O, is out of the lineup. This definitely looks like a weaker starting XV than the one Lions fielded in Test 1.

New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Sam Cane, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Joe Moody

British & Irish Lions: 15 Liam Williams, 14 Anthony Watson, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Owen Farrell, 11 Elliot Daly, 10 Johnny Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Sean O’Brien, 6 Sam Warburton (c), 5 Alun Wyn Jones, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Jamie George, 1 Mako Vunipola

New Zealand’s brilliance can not be questioned and you have to feel that they keep being underestimated by the bookies. The All Blacks regularly cover the set point spreads, often by a lot of points, and that might be the case again today.

Not only is New Zealand a better team, playing at home, but this Lions side has not looked impressive in their Southern tour. Despite having a ton of quality, there are obvious chemistry problems, the guys aren`t quite used to playing together and that is a killer when you meet an opponent like the All Blacks.

What is even worse for the Lions is the fact that they look dead tired. While New Zealand rugby is in the middle of the domestic season, with players being fit and in rhythm, the British&Irish Lions players are coming after a grueling European season which just came to an end – and their tour of New Zealand is going on for weeks, adding more fatigue.

The Lions have been visibly losing steam in the half of games, that was clear against both New Zealand last week and against Hurricanes 3 days ago (with the Lions being equalized after leading 31-17 before the last 15 minutes). This trend is expected to only get worse as their tour goes on, and they could be even more tired this time around.

If you asked me two weeks ago I would have said that Game 2 is the best chance for the Lions to challenge New Zealand, but now it definitely doesn`t look like it will be the case – actually, it might be the opposite. Seeing the handicap line, it`s hard to argue with a bet on New Zealand.

I reckon the point spread line should be somewhere at 15.5 points here, especially after how the Lions were dominated last week. With their current problems (fatigue, playing relations, poor form) and with a questionable selection ahead of this clash, they might not be so fortunate to lose by only 15, as it was the case in Game 1.

The salvation for the Lions could come from the weather, as rain is expected come game time, along with moderately strong wind.

On paper, that should favor the British style of rugby, and Gatland made sure to send plenty of top kickers in the lineup. However, it`s highly questionable if this will be indeed an edge for the Lions. New Zealand played some of its best matches in the rain, they proved able to handle a wet ball and are more than used to these contitions. Most importantly, the rain will make tackling that much harder for the Lions, facilitating line breaks for New Zealand. When all is said and done, my opinion is that weather will not have an impact on the result.

A tired team with chemistry issues and with guys playing out of position seems like a very digestable meal for the All Blacks. Look for NZ to showcase a lot of attacking and counterattacking rugby, forcing missed tackles and breaking the Lions lines. Farrell should be exposed at No.12 for The Lions, he if often a liability when played there and against the centers of New Zealand he could be run over.

My tip is New Zealand to cover the 13,5 point handicap, two extra converted tries are enough to see this through. Prediction: New Zealand – British&Irish Lions 37 – 16.

Pick: New Zealand -13 EH
Odds: 2.05 @ Betfair Sportsbook
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 9.45
Event date: 1 July