New Zealand – B&I Lions

New Zealand will host the British & Irish Lions at Eden Park in the deciding match of the series, after each team won a game so far. The All Blacks won the first one 30-15 here at Eden Park, while the Lions lucked out for a 24-21 win last week in Wellington.

New Zealand won Game 1 by 15 points and could have done it by 20+, looking every bit as good as they did last year, when they played some of the best rugby the World has ever seen. They were big favorites to win Game 2, but they struggled a bit in the beginning to cope with the heavy rain, which ended up favoring the Lions. Then, in the 20th minute, Sonny Bill Williams was controversially red carded and it seemed like that was it. However, New Zealand held their own and led almost the entire match, until the effort needed to play with 14 men finally showed, and they conceded 2 late easy tries – which they would have never conceded 15 vs. 15.

The Lions didn`t look that good on this Southern tour, often seeming tired and surrendering leads late on against some of New Zealand’s domestic club teams. They didn`t look very good in Game 1 against the All Blacks, but everything changed with their victory in Game 2. The Lions were very fortunate to win that with the rain, the late tries and most importantly the red card – but the result is what remains, and fact is they won the game. And they couldn`t have done it by playing poorly, no matter the circumstances.

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Team news & lineups:

Sonny Bill Williams is suspended for New Zealand, while Naholo and Ioane are injured. New Zealand doesn`t lose any quality though as Julian Savea, Jordie Barrett and Ngani Laumape come in. The Lions haven`t made a single change to the squad that won last week, and will field the same starting lineup as well.

New Zealand: 15 Jordie Barrett, 14 Israel Dagg, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Ngani Laumape, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Sam Cane, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Joe Moody

British&Irish Lions: 15 Liam Williams, 14 Anthony Watson, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Owen Farrell, 11 Elliot Daly, 10 Johnny Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Sean O’Brien, 6 Sam Warburton (c), 5 Alun Wyn Jones, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Jamie George, 1 Mako Vunipola

Despite the Game 2 loss, New Zealand looked great in these summer tests. They beat Samoa by 78 points (!!) in their first match of the year, beat the Lions by 15 in Game 1 and then almost won Game 2 despite being robbed by Jerome Garces, playing in unfavorable weather, and with Barrett having a stinker from the tee. Add the red card and it was a minor miracle that New Zealand managed to lead almost the entire game – that speaks volumes about how good they are.

At one point it seemed like the All Blacks could even cover a 12 point spread. They might have even done it if Barrett didn`t miss a couple of extremely easy penalties when they were leading the match. I didn`t expect the rain to bother them, but it did, as it was too heavy.

The Lions did show some improvement as their Southern Tour went on and their performance in Game 2 was solid, but fatigue remains a great concern. It didn`t have an impact in Game 2 due to New Zealand playing with 14 men, but it might well be in Game 3, with the players coming after a long season and a long Southern Tour.

I mentioned many times that the spread in these games between New Zealand and the Lions should be at about 15-16 points, rather than 10-11. They are a better side, while the Lions struggle a bit with team chemistry and with fatigue. The first game proved that, while the second game can`t be taken as a standard because of the circumstances and conditions.

New Zealand will be desperate for a bounce back win here and history shows they always recover in style after a loss. The All Blacks built up a lot of frustration after the way they lost last Saturday, so they will look to get back to their dominant ways. They want to win and win big, to prove yet again they are the Number 1 team in the World. Playing at Eden park will be an advantage, as they haven`t lost at this venue since 1994 and always seem to have something extra when they compete in Auckland.

Fully motivated, focused and with a sold out Eden Park behind them, New Zealand should be at their best here and win by more than 15 points. They should be able to roll the Lions over with their speed and penetrating ability, abilities they couldn`t quite capitalize on last week due to the weather and the red card. Expect a lot of line breaks and runs on the wing which should be converted in 4-5 tries.

The lineups are also promising in favor of the All Blacks. Julian “The Bus” Savea will be hungry after being left out of the firs two tests, and he is known for his ability to demolish defenses by himself. Jordie Barrett will be an upgrade if it is decided he will be the designated kicker – as his brother, as good as he is, is a liability from the tee and his inaccuracy cost New Zealand Game 2. What’s more, the Lions have selected the same lineup as last week – and while that proved to be a good one, they would have needed some fresh legs for this match considering how tired the guys are. As the match goes on, the Lions could finally give in to their extreme fatigue if they see the game is out of their reach.

There might be some rain come game time. It`s something worth taking into account as the rain hurt New Zealand in Game 2. But chances of rain are lower than 50% and even if it will rain, it won`t be anywhere near the opening of the skies it was last weekend. As such, weather doesn`t deter me from investing maximum stakes on my bet here.

My tip is New Zealand to cover the 11,5 handicap. They could have won or even covered the spread last week despite everything going against them. This time around they should complete the job and I wouldn`t be surprised if they win by 20+ points. Prediction: New Zealand – British & Irish Lions 42 – 19.

Pick: New Zealand -11,5
Odds: 2.00 @ Bwin
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 10
Event date: 8 July