New Zealand – Georgia

Group favorites New Zealand meet Georgia in what will likely be a solid bonus point win for the All Blacks. But Georgia will surely have something to prove after being dismantled by an inspired Argentina side seven days ago.

New Zealand put on an underwhelming performance against Namibia, after previously struggling to win against Argentina. The All Blacks were 78 point favorites with the bookies but ended up with only a 58-14 win, even being outplayed by Namibia in a couple of moments. Benefiting from a very easy pool and already beating Argentina, New Zealand clearly did not put the best effort against Namibia. It seems like the All Blacks are focusing on avoiding injuries and staying fresh in the rest of the group stage matches.

However, captain Richie McCaw said that it`s time for New Zealand to raise their level and that there will not be any more excuses. He all but promised a better performance today than against Namibia. On the other hand, he admited that the focus remains on working on tactics and polishing the all around game.

Underrated Georgia started the World Cup with a brilliant 17-10 upset over Tsonga, but could not back up that win in the next game against Argentina. Georgia was blown out 54-9 by Argentina – quite surprisingly, especially since the score at half time was only 14-9. Georgia had a monumental collapse in the second half, losing it 40-0 (!!!). Everybody concluded that Argentina played a brilliant half and also had a lot of help from the referee, but still Georgia will really need to pick it up against New Zealand.

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Team news & lineups:

New Zealand will improve the side that took the court against Namibia and will field virtually the first choice lineup, but key center Ma’a Nonu got injured. Georgia will do the same.

New Zealand: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw(c) 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Charlie Faumuina, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Wyatt Crockett.

Georgia: 15 Beka Tsiklauri, 14 Giorgi Aptsiauri, 13 David Kacharava, 12 Tamaz Mchedlidze, 11 Alexandr Todua, 10 Lasha Malaguradze, 9 Giorgi Begadze, 8 Lasha Lomidze, 7 Mamuka Gorgodze (c), 6 Shalva Sutiashvili, 5 Giorgi Chkhaidze, 4 Levan Datunashvili, 3 Levan Chilachava, 2 Shalva Mamukashvili, 1 Karlen Asieshvili

Georgia will have something to prove today and I expect them to come in with huge focus and determination. The “Lelo” will do everything in their power to show another level after that forgettable second half against Argentina and I reckon they will be able to do it against an unmotivated All Blacks side. Not to say that New Zealand won`t do a professional job and captain McCaw made clear that there will be no excuses and I expect a better showing than against Namibia. But their main objectives will be to stay healthy, work on their tactics and entertain the spectators. A big difference compared to the Georgian players, who are badly hurt in pride and play one of the matches of their lives.

The biggest win so far in the Rugby World Cup was 62 points in Australia – Uruguay, a much more one sided match than this one, at least on paper. New Zealand didn`t even cover a 45 point handicap against Namibia, so I doubt they will cover 65 against a much better and hungry Georgia side. Look for the All Blacks to have fun on the wings, but the Georgian front row should be able to pose a big threat. My tip is Georgia to cover the +65 point handicap. Prediction: New Zealand – Georgia 60 – 9.

Pick: Georgia (+65 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.94 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.52
Event date: 2 October