New Zealand – Namibia

New Zealand takes on Namibia in the only match of the day at the Rugby World Cup – a match that could well prove to be the most one sided in the entire competition. All Blacks start the game with an almost 80 point handicap given against them, but Namibia will be desperate to leave a good impression and cover the set handicap.

The All Blacks were pretty good in the first game. Sure, I expected them to cover the 20,5 spread (my only miss in 6 tries so far in the RWC), but their 26-16 win against a very good Argentina side was solid. Argentina was much better than expected and New Zealand really showed what they are capable off after a rusty first half. The All Blacks have been utterly dominant in International Rugby over the last half of decade and they looked like scoring a try every minute against the Pumas in the second half – it was a combination of bad luck and solid Argentina defense to deny New Zealand a 30 point second half in that game, after 12-13 at the half (when NZ had 2 players sent off via yellow cards).

New Zealand will make some changes for today’s match, but it will not be a second string side – the All Blacks are treating this game surprisingly serious and will field a solid lineup.

Namibia is traditionally the worst team in the Rugby World Cup in recent years, but they are starting to improve, fielding players that are plying their trade in big leagues like South Africa, France and England – even if most of them are just there to make up the numbers, or in second class teams. Namibia hasn`t played any relevant tests in preparation to the World Cup, the most recent match against a decent side being a 3-43 loss in Bucharest to Romania – but they did not have all their top players then.

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Lineups:

New Zealand: 15 Colin Slade, 14 Nehe Milner-Skudder, 13 Malakai Fekitoa, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Victor Vito, 7 Sam Cane (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Charlie Faumuina, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ben Franks.

Namibia: 15 Johan Tromp, 14 David Philander, 13 JC Greyling, 12 Johan Deysel, 11 Conrad Marais, 10 Theuns Kotzè, 9 Eugene Jantjies, 8 Leneve Damens, 7 Tinus du Plessis, 6 Jacques Burger (c), 5 Pieter-Jan van Lill, 4 Tjiuee Uanivi, 3 Johannes Coetzee, 2 Torsten van Jaarsveld, 1 Jaco Engels.

While New Zealand`s win over Argentina doesn`t exactly please the stats, the All Blacks were brilliant once they got going and it has to be said that the 12-13 first half score was largely due to 2 yellow cards for New Zealand. Sonny Bill Williams was instrumental when he took the court in the second half and I expect this guy to create havoc in the Namibia defense, as he is given the chance to start today.

Listen, Namibia has some decent players and is starting to slowly improve. They could argue that they are not the worst team in the World Cup, with that title possibly going to Uruguay. However, the All Blacks are just too strong right now, the quality difference is colossal and anything other than an 80+ victory for All Blacks would be a surprise. Look for New Zealand to be desperate for a huge win after the underwhelming score against Argentina, and the second string players that will take the court will be extra motivated.

My tip is New Zeland to win and cover the 75,5 handicap. It will be a blowout, that`s for sure, it remains to be seen if New Zealand can break 100. Just can`t see Namibia getting any kind of breath in this game, they will be murdered on the wings and can`t do a job in the center either – their top class captain Jacques Burger will not be able to hold NZ by himself. Look for NZ to constantly go forward like a rolling barrel. Prediction: New Zealand – Namibia 88-0.

Pick: New Zealand -75,5
Odds: 1.91 @ William Hill
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.19
Event date: 24 September