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New Zealand and South Africa will square off early on Saturday in the 4th round of the 2017 Rugby Championship, with the All Blacks knowing that a win would all but secure them the second consecutive title.
While the All Blacks have won all three matches so far in the competition, they seemed to have lost a step compared to the historic season they had last year, when they wiped out any competition they faced in dominating fashion. New Zealand started this 2017 Rugby Championship guns blazing, leading Australia 54-6 in Sydney, but has been shaky since then. Australia pulled close and lost that match 34-54, before giving the All Blacks a huge scare in New Zealand next round. Finally, the All Blacks claimed a highly unimpressive 37-22 home win against Argentina last week, with the match being dead even until the last 20 minutes or so.
South Africa came into the Rugby Championship with high hopes after claiming a 3-0 series win over France in June, even though that was not a full strength France team. Still it gave the Springboks confidence after they had a historically poor 2016, and they backed up the improvement over the last few wins. After a couple of convincing wins against Argentina, the Springboks faced their first real test last round in Sydney, and did well to hold Australia to a 23-23 draw.
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New Zealand recalled all their big guns for this match after shuffling the squad a bit in the last couple of matches, particularly last round against Argentina. However, they will miss Joe Moody. South Africa will have to deal with two fresh injuries for this game, Oosthuizen and particularly Kriel being out.
New Zealand: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Nehe Milner-Skudder, 13 Ryan Crotty, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Sam Cane, 6 Liam Squire, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Kane Hames
South Africa: 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Raymond Rhule, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Jan Serfontein, 11 Courtnall Skosan, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Ross Cronje, 8 Uzair Cassiem, 7 Jean-Luc du Preez, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Ruan Dreyer, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Tendai Mtawarira
New Zealand has won 9 of the last 10 meetings, and the last 7 home meetings. Last season New Zealand destroyed South Africa in the Rugby Championship, winning 41-13 and 57-15. However, over the years, South Africa often played close matches against the All Blacks, and their style works reasonably well against them.
New Zealand was really poor last week against Argentina, and in all honesty the last 200 minutes of rugby they played were below their incredible standards. Add the fact that they couldn`t overcome the British & Irish Lions back in June, and a fair point can be made that this is not the same team as last year.
Nevertheless, the All Blacks did have long periods of fabulous rugby this year as well, including in the Rugby Championship, particularly that 54-34 win in Australia in the first round. Now is the time for them to make a statement and they know it, recalling all the top guys – a clear indication that they view this match as their most important one in recent months. Smith, Whitelock or Crotty should have a tremendous impact on their game compared to what we saw last week vs. the Pumas.
South Africa definitely improved compared to last year, and drawing in Australia last week was definite proof of that, but the extent of their improvement is still not certain, as Australia was dirt poor last week, and still had the match under control.
Last week`s performances should actually work in favor of New Zealand here, as they rested many guys against Argentina, at home, while South Africa had a grueling match in Australia and will now have to play another one in New Zealand.
The scenario after which this match will be played is pretty easy to call, with New Zealand looking to play their usual expansive game, while South Africa will look to kick a lot of high balls, hoping the All Blacks are not able to launch deadly counters. A matchup problem for South Africa will be the fact that much of their recent success happened because of their dominant scrum. However, the All Blacks proved very strong in the scrum as well, and should hold their own here. This will make it difficult for South Africa to execute their usual gameplan.
Fortunately for New Zealand it seems weather will be fine this time around, with rain clearly bothering them last round against Argentina, or in June against the B&I Lions. Nigel Owens being a referee is also a plus, as he is not one to rush in stopping the game.
Listen, New Zealand was nowhere near covering the spread in the last two games, and with South Africa’s improvement, backing the All Blacks again to cover a big spread might seem risky. Me, I have placed plenty of bets on All Blacks to cover this year, and success wasn`t close to what it was last year.
However, there are factors which I feel favor the All Blacks here, particularly their potential ability to fight off the Springboks scrum, the weather, the lineups, and also the fact that they should be the fitter and more rested team. There might also be a case of New Zealand being underrated and South Africa overrated after the recent results.
This time the handicap line is not set at 25 or 30 points anymore, but at a very reasonable 17.5. I reckon the All Blacks will win this by 20+, so my tip will be, again, New Zealand to cover the handicap. Line is moving towards 18.5. Prediction: New Zealand – South Africa 39 – 16.
Pick: New Zealand -17,5
Odds: 1.91 @ Bwin
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.19
Event date: 16 September
