Kyrgios – Federer

Nick Kyrgios and Roger Federer will square off in the ATP Miami semifinals. They were also supposed to meet two weeks ago in the Indian Wells semis, but Nick retired pre-match with food poisoning.

Kyrgios is playing some of the best tennis of his career right now and that says a lot for a player as talented and as dangerous as him. The Australian is currently riding a 7 match winning streak which includes victories over Djokovic, Goffin and Alex Zverev (twice). Goffin and Zverev were Nick’s last two victims here in Miami, with Kyrgios dominating both of them, even if he did lose a set against Zverev (6-4 6-7 6-3). He seemed to have a bit of a problem with his knee late in the match, but it did not bother his movement or level of play.

Federer upped his win – loss record to 17-1 this year with his quarterfinal win over Berdych, but his 6-2 3-6 7-6 success was anything but convincing. Fed’s recent form and his massive matchup advantage over Berdych should have allowed a much easier win for him, but Federer wasn`t as sharp as he was in his last matches and even had to save 2 match points. Berdych played well, of course, but Federer produced a higher number of errors than he did in most matches this year and got a little lucky to escape with the win.

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Nick Kyrgios won the only H2H meeting back in 2015, on clay, with a 6-7 7-6 7-6 scoreline.

I backed Federer to win in straight sets against Berdych in the quarters, but in all honesty the signs of him getting a bit shaky were there to see. He really didn`t play that great in the 4th round against Bautista Agut (7-6 7-6). But he was still at a good level and given his recent form, you had to give him the benefit of the doubt – especially against a guy he utterly dominated lately, like Berdych.

However, his struggles against Berdych were very real and it seems apparent that Federer is finally getting a bit tired after playing so many matches in the last two weeks. Now he has to face a red hot young gun and power hitter like Kyrgios, with no days of rest after his 2 hour three setter against Berdych.

Kyrgios is serving absolutely fantastic lately and he is really playing at a very high level. The Australian has only faced 3 break points in his last three matches and saved them all. He did not face a single break point against an excellent player and good returner like Alex Zverev in his last match, over three sets of tennis. His apparent knee problem at the end of that match could be a slight concern, but it looked more like a normal issue after a long match and it didn`t affect his play.

Kyrgios right now looks like Berdych on steroids, an improved, more versatile and sharper version of the guy that almost beat Federer on Thursday night. Unless Roger suddenly regains his A game, I do not think he is the favorite in this match.

Kyrgios is not the type of guy to feel pressure on the big stage like others may against Federer. I expect Kyrgios to continue playing at a very high level and take advantage of Federer’s tired legs. My tip is Kyrgios to win and I am taking this early, as I see the odds dropping (they already are).

Obviously you can never rule Roger Federer out, but the value is all over the Australian here. My tip is Kyrgios to win. Prediction: Nick Kyrgios – Roger Federer 6-4 7-6.

Pick: Kyrgios
Odds: 2.58 @ 18Bet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 12.64
Event date: 31 March