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High profile final at ATP Houston, this could always be a Grand Slam quarterfinal if the two players are in good form and right now they are. Surely this will be a great match for the fans, but after a thorough analysis it could well be to be a good one for the punters too.
Almagro, nursing an injury early on in 2014 and missing the Australian Open, decided to start his season on Clay in South America, playing in just one hard court tournament at Miami. He didn`t have his best season so far for sure, posting a 6-5 win loss record prior to Houston, but he did reach two semifinals at Vina Del Mar and Buenos Aires, losing to Fognini and Ferrer. The last three tournaments were bad for Nico, he got a single win, but here at Houston he played great tennis, defeating Russel and Sock in straight sets. However, the fact that he played only two matches could hurt him in the final. He had a bye in the first round and a walkover in the semifinals.
Verdasco is struggling to find his best level of form for years, and the start of 2014 was again disappointing, posting a 4-5 win-loss record and losing to guys like De Bakker, Hanescu or Gabashvilli. He did not play on clay prior to Houston but surprisingly managed to find some great rhythm here and played very good tennis. Fernando defeated Johnson, Young and Giraldo on his way to the final, losing a single set (to Johnson) and clearly increasing his level round after round.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
The H2H is 7-3 for Verdasco and Fernando seems to have a matchup advantage over Almagro due to his left-handed style of play. Verdasco won the last meeting last year, at Bastad on clay a tight three setter, and he often pushed Almagro to the limit even when he was in his worst form. Even more, Verdasco won the last three direct matches played on clay.
This is a very hard one to predict, as the analysis shows both players to have their advantages. Almagro is the better and more consistent player over the last few years, he played much more on clay this season and he was very solid and consistent in the two matches he played here at Houston. Verdasco on the other hand could have better rhythm due to having more matches under his belt in this tournament and he owns the matchup against Nico – which is always a deciding factor in tennis. If I were to choose a moneyline bet here I would definitely go with Verdasco to win because of the odds, as this is close to a 50-50 match, but the more obvious bet here looks to be the over.
The line is set at 22,5 games and these two guys mostly played tight matches between eachother. Right now both are in very good form, it’s hard to separate them, so we should see 3 sets here, but the bet would also be a winner with a 7-6 6-4 scoreline. I`m expecting a thriller so my tip is over 22,5 games and the odds are dropping pretty fast on this one. Prediction: Nicolas Almagro – Fernando Verdasco 3-6 6-3 6-7.
Pick: over 22,5 games
Odds: 1.91 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.28
Event date: 13 April
