Almagro – Cuevas

Second round match which got my sight here at the US Open. We have Nicolas Almagro from Spain and Pablo Cuevas from Uruguay battling for a place in the 3rd round.

Cuevas is in the peak of his career right now at the age of 30, winning two tournaments this year and getting into two more finals. He won Rio and Sao Paolo (defeated Nadal on clay during) and lost in finals of Hamnburg and Nottingham. Almagro on the other hand has seen better days, now ranked 48 in the world, with a career best of 9.

From the two we know for sure that hard courts favor Nico as he has the game play based on power and flat shots. He is the only one from the two that got several times into the 3rd round at US Open and one time also in the second week. The big problem for Almagro seems to be the head to head, where Cuevas is leading 4-0, with 3 of those played last year (2 on clay and one of hard courts).

I will bet on Almagro in this match and I will take this bet mainly because of the injury problems I know Cuevas to have at the moment.

I saw the second half of Cuevas` match against Sela and he struggled big time, calling for MTO several times (once during a game). Cuevas won in the end 6-3, 6-2, 0-6, 5-7, 6-3. Almagro had an easier 1st round match (but he was priced at 1.51, compared to Cuevas 1.23 against Sela) against Fucsovics. He won 6-1, 6-4, 7-6(7) and played well.

I think that there is a good chance for the match will be settled by retirement and if Cuevas manages to finish some sets I doubt he will be 100% fit. This is the best chance for Nicolas Almagro to get to a 3rd round in a major again.

As per my analysis this bet should be taken at a bookmaker which does not void the bets in case of retirement. For me it`s Bwin, which has a 1-ball rule.

Pick: Almagro
Odds: 2.25 @ Bwin
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 10
Event date: 31 August