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Northern Ireland and Russia will face off in today`s single World Cup 2014 qualification game. The two teams are in totally different situations in Group F, with Russia fighting for top spot, while the hosts are already eliminated from the qualification race.
Earlier in the group Russia easily defeated Northern Ireland, a relaxed 2-0 win in Moscow. This could happen again today.
Northern Ireland is one of the worst teams in Europe at the moment, they are really not able to produce against quality teams. Except a shock draw against Portugal in october 2012, Northern Ireland has been abysmal in the qualifying group, not winning any games and drawing at home against the likes of Azerbaidjan and Luxembourg. Their only games in 2013 were a friendly against Malta (0-0) and a 2-0 home defeat to Israel. As if they don`t have enough problems, the northern irish have a depleted squad for this match, with a number of players missing for different reasons: David Healy, Paddy McCourt, Chris Baird, Johnny Evans, Kyle Lafferty and Chris Brunt are all unavailable.
Probable Northen Ireland starting eleven (4-4-2):
Carroll – Hughes, McAuley, Bruce, Lafferty – Davis, McCann, McGinn, Ferguson – Ward, Paterson
Russia looks really strong under Capello, and the eastern europeans can climb to the top spot in the group with three points today. Russia is just two points behind Portugal and has two games in hand, so this encounter is crucial for them, they would become favorites to win the group and achieve direct qualification to the World Cup. Like their opponents, Russia also has some missings, including Andrey Arshavin (along with Kokorin, Berezutsky or Zhirkov), but they have so much more depth in the squad and they have proper replacements. Capello will field a very strong team here:
Russia (4-2-3-1):
Akinfeev – Anyukov, V.Berezutsky, Ignashevich, Granat – Denisov, Faizulin – Bystrov, Dzagoev, Shirokov – Kerzhakov
I really can`t see Northern Ireland taking anything from this match, it would be an illogical result and a huge surprise if they were to get even one point. Russia is by far the better team, they are in much better form and they need a win badly. They are also very consistent under Capello, usually not losing accessible points. Home court advantage is a plus for Northern Ireland, but this lone advantage can`t decide the match in their favor. The only question here would be if the visitors can win by more than 1 goal. I will stay on the safe side and go with the simple win, but with maximum stakes. Asian handicap -1 also looks good, but I think it`s fairly possible for Russia to secure a 1 goal advantage and then sit back and just protect it, so I`m sticking with simple win.
Pick: Russia
Odds: 1.40 @ William Hill
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 4
Event date: 14 August
