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Novak Djokovic will take a penultimate step in his quest to complete the Career Grand Slam, but Andy Murray will try and make it a last and fatal step for the Serbian.
Djokovic ruined Nadal in a one sided 7-5 6-3 6-1 win and I have never seen the 9 time Roland Garros champion looking so broken down and defeated on a tennis court. Impressive performance from Nole but in all honesty Nadal played tennis just from the middle of the first set until the middle of the 2nd – he was dreadful in the rest of the match, hitting the balls way too short, looking like a shell of his former self. Now the Serbian superstar will have to recover mentally after that huge win against Rafa in order to take on Murray, who should be able to play much better tennis than Nadal.
Murray had a brilliant clay court season, winning 2 titles (including blowing out Nadal in Madrid), being the second most successful player on the red dirt after Djokovic. The Brit is confirming his improvement on clay in the last few years and is making good on his words that the red dirt is actually his preferred surface. Andy faced a tough 1st set against David Ferrer in the quarters, but after winning in a tiebreak he cruised in the next two – a very solid display and a welcome win in 3 sets after a red hot Chardy pushed him to 5 in the 4th round.
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The Head 2 Head is 18-8 for Djokovic (2-0 on clay) and the Serbian won the last 7 meetings. It`s no secret that Djokovic owns the Head 2 Head and he knows how to play his long time rival, but the numbers are a little bit distorted, as Murray was nowhere near his best level in 2015 (when 4 of their last 7 meetings took place). The pair met three times this year, Djokovic winning them all, but Murray took a set in 2 of those 3 meetings.
Djokovic hasn`t been tested in this tournament and Nadal was just awful for most of the match in the quarters. Not to say that Djokovic isn`t playing brilliant tennis, only a fool could say that – he`s clearly on another planet now, unbelievable consistency + overall level of tennis and he should win this against an opponent which always struggled in their Head 2 Head meetings. But facing an unleashed Murray might be the toughest test Djokovic faced so far and with all the mental pressure after the Nadal win, it won’t be easy for him. I saw Murray hitting long, deep and powerful shots against Ferrer, keeping the ball in play, exactly what Nadal could not do. Andy will not go down easy here.
Maybe I wouldn`t stake my house on this one, but I will take a more than decent bet and I`m confident Murray will be able to take at least one set from the incredible Djoker. I reckon the 1st or the 2nd are the most likely sets for the Brit to snatch. If things go his way, he could even challenge for an upset, though I don`t expect it. My tip is Andy Murray to cover the +2,5 set handicap. Prediction: Novak Djokovic – Andy Murray 4-6 6-3 7-6 6-2.
Pick: Murray +2,5 sets
Odds: 1.72 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 5.04
Event date: 5 June
