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Novak Djokovic will try to reach his second consecutive Wimbledon final, but he will have to fend off the challenge of young gun Grigor Dimitrov, who just knocked out Andy Murray and must feel confident about his chances to record another upset.
Djokovic has been the man in form on the ATP World tour this year, probably the best and most consistent player in the first half of the season. He continued in the same manner here at Wimbledon, despite not playing any preparation tournament on grass. Nole showed good tennis so far, but the thing about him is that grass is not his favorite surface and, despite reaching this stage, he did not replicate the same performance as in Roland Garros and is not at his absolute best level – and he will always be in that situation on the green. Nole had big problems against Cilic in the quarterfinals, being 2-1 down but managing to recover convincingly in the last 2 sets. Cilic was also playing great tennis, so we are back to what I stated earlier: Djokovic is in great form, but grass prevents him to be as dominant as on other surfaces.
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Dimitrov’s emergence as a Grand Slam contender was inevitable, and the Bulgarian finally reached his first semifinal with an amazing 3 set win over Andy Murray, who before the match was looking more and more like the main favorite to lift the trophy. Maybe Andy was not at his best against Grigor, he made plenty of unforced errors, but credit must go to the Bulgarian. Dimitrov had a great preparation on grass, winning Queens with a victory over in-form Lopez in the final, and played great tennis overall in Wimbledon so far. He won all matches in 3 sets except of a 5 setter against Dolgopolov in the 3rd round. Fortunately for him, the Bulgarian has eliminated the issues he had against Dolgopolov in the following stages of the tournament.
The H2H is 3-1 for Djokovic, but the two have never met on grass and did not play each other in the last year, since Dimitrov really broke out as a top 15 player. A matchup analysis could show a slight edge for Djokovic, as he has the return to frustrate Dimitrov on serve, he can also force the offensive Bulgarian to hit another shot. On the other hand, grass is a surface that will favor Grigor a little bit.
Very interesting match to predict this one, and I think it will be rather close. I`m giving Djokovic the first chance due to his quality, his experience and his return of serve, but the odds are just too low. Dimitrov is the real deal, he will be full of confidence coming into this one and he can at least push Nole all the way, but he does have solid chances of winning as well. If Djokovic plays like he did against Cilic, there`s little chance he can finish off Dimitrov in 3 or 4 sets, or even finish him at all. The Bulgarian is playing better tennis than Cilic and he has the weapons to trouble Djokovic on grass, despite the only so slight matchup disadvantage. My tip is Dimitrov +1,5 set handicap. Also, my analysis might suggest that the odds for this bet should be lower, so I feel there`s value involved as well – still, I`ll keep the stakes reasonable, as Djokovic is a scary guy to bet against. Prediction: Novak Djokovic – Grigor Dimitrov 6-3 6-7 4-6 6-2 6-3.
Pick: Dimitrov (+1,5 set handicap)
Odds: 2.60 @ Unibet
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 9.6
Event date: 4 July
